How big of a problem is "DNP - Rest" to the NBA sports betting industry?

If somebody were to ask you, “Quick, name the top three storylines of the 2016-2017 NBA regular season,” there’s absolutely no doubt whatsoever in my mind that at some point during your answer the topic of superstar players missing games due to rest would be mentioned.

The "DNP-Rest" designation has taken the country, most notably the high-priced talking heads who make an absolute killing stirring up controversy, by storm thanks to its polarizing nature. On one side of the debate stage stands the old guard, steadfast in their argument that the current generation of NBA players is “soft” and has an obligation to both the paying fans and the television networks to play when healthy. On the other side of the aisle resides the (generally) younger, more analytical mind with analysis rooted in medical studies, science and data. Why burn up regular season minutes in the second half of a road back-to-back when the research shows that you are almost three times more likely to sustain an injury in such a situation?

No matter your position on the matter in question, I think it’s safe to say that we all recognize the fact that commissioner Adam Silver and the Association have a tricky issue on their hands.

Let’s begin with the following statement(s) of fact: television networks currently combine to pay over $2.5 billion per year for the rights to air NBA games, per the New York Times. This is an astronomical amount of money that:

A) Needs to be recouped by the networks via commercials AND
B) Is the primary reason why NBA player salaries shot through the roof this past offseason

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So it stands to reason that if superstar players continue to opt for rest during marquee television matchups, like the Spurs and Warriors did back on Saturday, March 11, the networks could wind up losing a significant amount of commercial revenue because far fewer people would be interested in watching Matt Barnes vs. David Lee than they would Steph Curry vs. Kawhi Leonard. This, in turn, would lead to less television revenue for the league and, therefore, less money for the players.

So one could argue that by resting in an effort to help their cause, NBA players are only hurting themselves financially over the long haul.

This is perceived as the primary problem as it pertains to “DNP-Rest” and superstar players. But there’s an ancillary issue worth discussing that is near and dear to the hearts of many of you who are currently reading this article, and that’s the issue of the “DNP-Rest” impact on sports wagering in Las Vegas.

Granted, sports betting, for the most part, is illegal in the United States of America. But we all know that a good chunk of us are not abiding by the rules. The NBA, as well as the other major professional sports, understand this fact. But that doesn’t mean they either secretly or publicly condemn sports betting because they also understand the fact that it leads to more eyeballs glued to the television screen. Think about this: Outside of Jacksonville and Cleveland, how many people are tuning into an NFL Thursday night showdown between the Jaguars and Browns who do not have either money or fantasy sports interests invested in the game?

Which leads us back to our earlier point: Is “DNP-Rest” affecting the bottom line in Las Vegas?

“It’s been going on for years, but the media has just now discovered this in the last month,” Ed Salmons, Assistant Manager of the Westgate SuperBook, told Covers. “It hurts the handle [total amount of money wagered] on those primetime games for sure, but it’s been part of the NBA for a while now, so it’s not a surprise to us.”

One bookmaker Covers spoke to on the condition of anonymity reported that wagering on primetime NBA games in which superstar players opt to rest has decreased the sportsbook’s overall handle by approximately 25 percent on those matchups.

And that’s before we even scratch the surface on the money that actually is being wagered on these “DNP-Rest” games.

“Well, DNP-Rest helps handle on some games, but oftentimes that’s handle we don't want,” Chris Andrews, Sportsbook Director at the South Point Hotel, Casino & Spa told Covers. “People find out beforehand which players are actually playing and which ones are resting before that information becomes public. I've had to cut the limit on some of those games.”

While this certainly doesn’t suggest the existence of impropriety because somebody within the organization could tell a friend, who tells a friend, who tells a friend, it’s still an image that the Association would no doubt prefer to avoid at all costs, especially considering the fact that we are just ten years removed from the Tim Donaghy scandal.

Granted, as mentioned earlier, the NBA is well aware of the issues caused by the current “DNP-Rest” phenomenon. Which is why there is good reason to believe that changes are coming. Simply adding two weeks to the start of the regular season and two weeks to the end of the regular season would add 28 days to the schedule that could be used to break-up lengthy road trips as well as situations that involve three games in four nights.

But until those changes occur, those of us who thrive on talking about the sports we love will continue to wage the debate of whether or not “DNP-Rest” is as big a problem as some are making it out to be.

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