Don’t look now, but the Los Angeles Lakers are suddenly on the upswing. Widely dismissed after losing their first five games of the season, LeBron James & Co. have barged back into the playoff conversation by stringing together back-to-back wins over the Denver Nuggets and New Orleans Pelicans.
The Lakers will try to make it three straight tonight when they host the pesky Utah Jazz, another team that knows a thing or two about bucking expectations. Utah has somehow managed to win six games despite jettisoning perennial All-Stars Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell in the offseason. The remaining players have banded together and have the Jazz tied for first place in the Northwest Division.
Will L.A. keep rolling tonight, or will Utah hit all the rights notes on the road? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Jazz vs. Lakers on Friday, November 4.
Jazz vs Lakers best odds
Jazz vs Lakers picks and predictions
Lauri Markkanen is the perfect example of a talented player who simply needed a fresh start. The 7-foot Finn played for three different coaches with three radically different schemes during his five years in Chicago before getting lost in the Cavaliers’ crowded frontcourt rotation a year ago.
He would likely still be the odd man out in Cleveland were it not for a blockbuster trade that sent Markkanen to the Utah Jazz for a package centered around Donovan Mitchell.
It was a sudden — and shocking — turn of events, but the 25-year-old sharpshooter has acquitted himself well in Salt Lake City. Not only is he leading the Jazz in scoring (21.7 ppg) and rebounding (9.0 rpg), but he’s also connecting on a career-high 51% of his field goal attempts.
Markkanen had long teased fans with his flashes of brilliance, but he didn’t finally begin to coalesce into a complete player until this past summer when he represented his native Finland in EuroBasket 2022. Cast as the squad’s first, second, and third option on offense, he averaged 27.9 points on 50-40-90 shooting while showcasing a level of aggression previously missing from his game.
“The Finnisher” surprised even himself with his strong performance. “I kind of showed myself I can do multiple things on the floor on both ends and it kind of built my confidence back up,” he said. “So, I feel like I’ve been ready to go for the year.”
That’s been evident with a recent string of eye-popping outings. Markkanen has already had a pair of 31-point explosions against the Pelicans and Grizzlies, and has gone Over 28.5 points + rebounds in five of the nine games he’s appeared in.
He’s especially set up for success tonight against a Lakers squad that lacks depth in the frontcourt and is surrendering a combined 30 points + rebounds to opposing power forwards.
Expect Markkanen to start and “Finnish” strong this evening in Los Angeles.
My best bet: Lauri Markkanen Over 28.5 points + rebounds (-105)
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Jazz vs Lakers spread analysis
The Los Angeles Lakers opened as 1.5-point favorites, but the spread has since moved to 2.5 at most books. Bettors clearly seem to be buying into the notion that L.A. has found a new gear in its past two games.
One reason for Los Angeles’ improved play has been the benching of Russell Westbrook, who looked like a shell of his former self during the team’s first three games. Moving the nine-time All-Star to the second unit has allowed him to feast on opposing teams’ reserves while also putting the ball in his hands for a larger portion of possessions.
Westbrook simply never looked comfortable as an off-ball screener, but he’s rediscovered his mojo again as a lead ballhandler and has averaged 15.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists per game during the Lakers’ two wins.
L.A. has also gotten a big boost from new acquisition Lonnie Walker IV. The fifth-year guard was brought in to mitigate the loss of Malik Monk, but has already surpassed his predecessor in most respects.
Walker is precisely the kind of aggressive, hyper-athletic guard the Lakers have needed for years and the franchise has benefited greatly from his ability to create his own shot. The former Spur is averaging 16.1 points, 3.3. rebounds, and 2.3 assists, and is coming off a season-high 28-point performance against the Pelicans.
Another reason bettors should be confident in the Lakers is the fact that all three of Utah’s losses this season have come on the road. That includes a 16-point shellacking to the Nuggets in the Mile High City. Like most young — or newly assembled — teams, the Jazz shoot better and make more trips to the charity stripe on their own home court.
It's also worth noting that Utah is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 road games and 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games played on just one day’s rest.
Jazz vs Lakers Over/Under analysis
The Under has been the play for the Jazz and Lakers this season as both teams have failed to crack the posted point total in the majority of their games. Utah has gone Under in six of its nine games, while Los Angeles has come up short of oddsmakers’ projections in four of its seven games.
The primary reason for the Lakers’ low totals has been a bout of historically bad outside shooting. L.A. is connecting on just 26.7% of its shots from beyond the arc which, if the season were to end today, would be the lowest mark since the 1998-99 Philadelphia 76ers. Only Matt Ryan and Austin Reaves are shooting above 30% from three, and neither player is a high-volume shooter (although the supremely confident Ryan would surely love to be).
Unfortunately, the Lakers haven’t been much better closer to the basket. L.A. ranks 30th in effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage, a pair of metrics that also factor in 2-point attempts and free-throw attempts.
Utah has been far more accurate, but it hasn’t exactly been putting the league on notice either. The Jazz rank just 14th in offensive rating and 10th in points per game and have been held below 110 points four times this season.
Utah will be facing another tough test tonight against the Lakers who, for all their many shortcomings, are an outstanding defensive unit. Los Angeles has the league’s second-best defensive rating and is holding opposing teams to just 107.4 points per game.
L.A. has benefitted greatly from the addition of Patrick Beverley, who has made life miserable for opposing point guards, and has received excellent rim protection from Anthony Davis, who ranks fifth in the NBA in blocks.
Add it all up and it's not surprising the opening total of 225.5 has barely budged in the last 24 hours.
Jazz vs Lakers betting trend to know
The Jazz are 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles. Find more NBA betting trends for Jazz vs. Lakers.
Jazz vs Lakers game info
| Location: | crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, November 4, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountains, Spectrum SportsNet |
