Kings vs Warriors Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Sacramento Can't Keep Up with Curry & Co.

The Sacramento Kings are off to a great start in 2023-24, taking two of their first three games over pesky Western Conference opponents. Now comes a real test, defying NBA odds against the Golden State Warriors on the road without the help of point guard De’Aaron Fox.   

Can Sacramento overcome the loss of its best player to put the Warriors on upset alert, or will Golden State extend its winning streak to four?

Let's dive right into it with my in-depth preview and free NBA picks for the Kings vs. Warriors on November 1.

Kings vs Warriors odds

Kings vs Warriors predictions

First and foremost, let’s get the injury report out of the way. Fox suffered a right ankle sprain in the Sacramento Kings win over the Lakers, and he'll join the injured Trey Lyles on the bench for this one. Klay Thompson and Dario Saric are looking good to play on the other side of the coin, while Jonathan Kuminga enters with a questionable tag after bruising his knee.

With Fox out and Thompson in, things are looking rather bleak for the Kings. They’ve once again looked underwhelming on the defensive side of the ball — ranking 21st on that end through three games — and while the sample size is small, it should be noted they faced two offense-averse teams in the Jazz and Lakers... with a tough showing vs. the Golden State Warriors sandwiched in between.

That loss, which came late last week, would have been of catastrophic proportions if not for a 39-point outburst from Fox. His teammates managed to shoot just 40.1% from the field and a very poor 22.5% from 3-point range as the Kings succumbed to one of the strongest defenses out West. Offensively, without Fox, this team should struggle to keep pace with a Warriors team that is scoring with relative ease.

Domantas Sabonis had a rather efficient night, which is to be expected against a rather undersized Warriors frontcourt, but that game didn’t feature Draymond Green.

With the Warriors’ offense firing on all cylinders, I expect this one to be rather straightforward. Golden State was incredible on its home court last year — covering 65.2% of the time — and I will back that trend to carry over into this season.

My best bet: Warriors -7 (-112 at DraftKings)

Kings vs Warriors same-game parlay

Warriors -7.5

Sabonis 30+ PR

Curry 4+ made threes

+425 at DraftKings

The strength of the Warriors simply does not lie inside. Sure, Green will be back and that will hamper Sabonis a bit, but we can’t ignore this is a team that has struggled on the glass for years with Green and Kevon Looney up front. Sabonis torched Golden State for 18 boards in the first meeting between these two teams, and while I like the Over on his rebounds, I like this even better. Fox won’t be there to take 28 shots again, so I expect the Kings to lean heavily on Sabonis to score the ball inside.

As for the third leg, it’s early, but Stephen Curry is taking more threes per game than he’s ever taken before at 12.8 per game. He cashed in on seven of 10 attempts from deep against the Kings last week and has yet to have a game where he’s hit fewer than four triples. The Kings’ perimeter defense is not good, and it won’t get a ton better with Davion Mitchell stepping in for Fox.

With all of that, I think we see a game dominated by Curry and the Warriors, but expect Sabonis to stuff the stat sheet with the offense in his hands.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Kings vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

The Kings were 12th in pace a year ago and have opened the season up in fourth when it comes to that category. While a lot of that has to do with Fox operating as the primary ball handler, it’s worth noting Sac-Town (through three games, mind you) has been operating at a much quicker pace in the minutes where he’s been on the bench. On top of that, with Mitchell on the floor, this team’s pace rating is up over 110.

So, I think this game should certainly lend itself to the Over. The Kings’ defense has been very bad, and their offense has relied heavily on transition scoring which is nothing new for this team. This number is somewhat high, but not nearly high enough for me to consider the Under.

I’d also point out that while Green is returning to strengthen this team’s defensive attack, it’s unlikely he plays his full complement of minutes in his first game of the season as the team tries to ease him into action like an old man into a bath. If I had to place a bet on the total, there’s only one side I’m looking at here.

Kings vs Warriors betting trend to know

The Warriors went 25-16-1 ATS (61%) as home favorites last season. Find more NBA betting trends for Kings vs Warriors.

Kings vs Warriors game info

Kings vs Warriors latest injuries

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