Knicks vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Randle Rocks the Glass in Boston

The New York Knicks get a tough Boston Celtics team tonight and need a big game out of Julius Randle to keep it competitive.

For the Celtics, it's about persevering through the injury to Marcus Smart, the team's vocal leader and best defensive player. With the defensive-minded Smart out of the lineup, I expect more offensive firepower from each team tonight. 

Find out your best options with our free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Knicks vs. Celtics tonight.

Knicks vs Celtics best odds

Knicks vs Celtics picks and predictions

Predicting how the Knicks will show up on any night is becoming increasingly confusing. On one night, they let the Hawks score 139 points. On another, they are holding the Cavaliers to 103 points in a victory. For all the inconsistencies, the most consistent player for New York has been Julius Randle.

Whenever I'm in doubt, I place my faith in a Randle player prop.

The first thing that strikes me, when glancing at the two teams' starting lineups, is that Boston will struggle to contain Randle on the glass. The Celtics typically run smaller lineups with Robert Williams, who is only 6-foot-9, manning the center position. Williams will make it difficult for Randle to score around the basket, but he shouldn’t affect his ability to rack up rebounds against a lineup of guys his size or smaller.

There is little sample size this season, with the lone matchup between the two teams resulting in a nine-rebound performance for Randle. Much has changed since that November matchup, including a rebounding clinic from Randle of late. Randle has grabbed 13 or more rebounds in all but one of his last nine games.

Boston currently ranks 13th overall in opponents' total rebounds per game (51.1), which means a player such as Randle, who attacks the boards relentlessly, will have his opportunities to capitalize. Another tidbit to consider is that the Knicks are tied for first in offensive rebounding (13.3), which puts Randle in an ideal situation to grab even more rebounds.

With Mitchell Robinson out of the lineup for the time being, some may have been skeptical of Randle's ability to grab rebounds, with more attention being paid to slowing down his board production. That has yet to be the case, as he's averaging 14 rebounds since Robinson's injury. 

The Celtics surrender 15.6 rebounds per game to opposing centers, a position Randle should find himself in through spurts throughout the game. Give me Randle and the rebounds.

My best bet: Julius Randle Over 11.5 rebounds (-130 at FanDuel)

Knicks vs Celtics spread analysis

The Knicks are a healthy 8.5-point underdog going into tonight's matchup with the Celtics. Boston has been the best team in the Eastern Conference for the entire season and tonight shouldn't be any different, as Boston will likely win significantly.

A lot has changed for New York since the season's early stages, but its defense has regressed drastically with Robinson out. That doesn't bode well for New York, which allowed Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown to combine for 56 points the last time these two teams went head-to-head. I'd expect both wings to make it a point to get to the basket early and often.

New York showed a great deal of heart against the Cavaliers, but the overall performance of this team since Robinson went out hasn't been great. I like Boston by double digits.

Knicks vs Celtics Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under is currently set at 223. The Celtics possess one of the Top 5 defensive ratings in all of basketball, and we all know what the Knicks can do on any given night defensively when focused. However, I don't expect a big defensive showing tonight when factoring in significant injuries on both teams. 

As mentioned earlier, Robinson's absence has significantly impacted the Knicks' ability to get stops. The Knicks surrender the sixth-most points per game (120.8) in the period Robinson has been sidelined with a thumb injury. In comparison, before this stretch, the Knicks ranked seventh in opponents' points per game, only allowing 111.3 per contest. The Robinson effect is real, and the Knicks will continue to miss his presence significantly.

Boston enters tonight without the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Marcus Smart, who recently injured his ankle. Smart is one of the league's toughest and most tenacious defenders today. The 28-year-old's ability to defend with all the rules catering to the offensive side of the ball today is simply unbelievable. Not having him tonight opens up a significant opportunity for Jalen Brunson to show out in a big way. 

Knicks vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0-1 in the Knicks’ last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Celtics.

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