Knicks vs Hornets Picks and Predictions: Caught in the Hornet's Nest

The Knicks season has nearly reached its official death. Well, maybe “death” is a bit extreme, but with New York six games behind the final spot in the play-in with only 10 games to play, that description is also not too far off.

Thus, tonight’s trip to Charlotte cannot be looked at as a possible play-in preview, but instead as the Knicks playing out the string while the Hornets scrap for a chance to host a play-in game.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Knicks vs Hornets on March 23, with tip set for 7:00 p.m. ET.

Knicks vs Hornets odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Hornets opened Tuesday afternoon as 6-point favorites, ticking upward to -6.5 before every book had this game listed. Overnight, that spread rose to -7 before spiking during the lunch hour to -8. Early Wednesday afternoon, it settled at -7.5 across the board.

The total hit the boards Tuesday afternoon at 226 before jumping to an even 227 on Wednesday morning. By the end of the morning, though, it had fallen all the way down to 225 and 224.5, depending on your book.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Knicks vs Hornets predictions

• Prediction: Hornets -7 (-114)
• Prediction: Over 224.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Hornets -7 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/23/2022 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Knicks vs Hornets game info

• Location: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC
• Date: Wednesday, March 23, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Southeast-Charlotte, MSG

Knicks vs Hornets betting preview

Key injuries

Knicks: Julius Randle PF (Questionable), Derrick Rose PG (Out), Nerlens Noel C (Out), Cam Reddish SF (Out), Kemba Walker PG (Out).
Hornets: James Bouknight SG (Out), Gordon Hayward SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 4-1 in Charlotte’s last five games and 6-1 in its last seven games as a favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Hornets.

Knicks vs Hornets picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

This time of year, as boring as it may be, there is value to be found in fading the dredges of the NBA. The Knicks have nothing to play for, are increasingly dabbling with young players and are content to run out the string on a lost season. Players and coaches do not tank, let’s not mistake that. But organizations do, and rotations can be influenced by an organization.

Look at RJ Barrett and Jericho Sims, for example. In the last five games, they have averaged 41.3 and 19.3 minutes per game, respectively. Before these last two weeks, they averaged 33.8 and 8.4 minutes per game.

The Knicks are trying to ascertain if they might have genuine building blocks in the wingman and the center, and if that costs New York a few games right now, all the better. No one in the NBA has ever scoffed at a better draft pick.

Thus, the Knicks have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games. A hard fall down the standings could help New York drop past both the Spurs (two games worse than the Knicks, currently) and the Blazers (2.5 games worse) by season’s end. If that happened, New York’s chances at the No. 1 pick would leap to 7.5% from 4.5%. It may not be fun basketball to watch, but it is an understandable approach to roster-building.

Of course, that is why the spread exists and why the Hornets have always been notable favorites in this game.

Charlotte is one of the teams who has spiked since the All-Star break, along with Minnesota and Milwaukee. The Hornets have not only gone 8-4 since the week off, including a five-game winning streak, but they have gone 7-5 ATS, going 4-1 in the last two weeks. That one ATS loss came Monday in a tight victory over the Pelicans, missing the cover by a sole bucket.

Charlotte’s defensive rating since the break has been a middling No. 14 in the league, per StatMuse, but it is No. 3 on the other side of the ball, part of a group of four far and away from the rest of the league, again including the Timberwolves and Bucks. Suffice it to say, New York’s No. 20 offensive rating will struggle immensely keeping up with the Hornets.

Let’s make the math simpler. If granting that the Knicks have leaned into the skid in the last two weeks, their scoring average of 107.8 points per game in their last five games is nearly 20 points behind the Hornets’ 125.4.

Prediction: Hornets -7 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

It’s that Charlotte offense that dictates this bet. It is humming in all respects. Six players are averaging double digits since the All-Star break, led by Terry Rozier’s 23.6 points per game, and Isaiah Thomas is literally a single extra free throw in his seven appearances away from joining them. Four of those six have effective field goal percentages north of 59% in this stretch.

If looking ahead, well beyond tonight, this kind of offense and its excellence in transition could yield some play-in chaos. It is the type of offense that could upset the Nets should they meet in a win-or-go-home moment.

Consider that your reason to actually tune into what could be a rout of the Knicks. The Hornets are finding a form that may influence the postseason and when that form shows itself tonight against New York, the latter’s tanking will not be the reason why.

Tom Thibodeau’s defense ranks No. 8 in defensive rating since the All-Star break. The disrupted rotations have not doomed his trademark, just the Knicks’ record.

Charlotte’s offense is too potent for Thibodeau’s trademark, though, hence that lofty offensive ranking. Considering the Hornets have averaged 125.4 points per game of late, the Knicks may not need to do much tonight to push this total Over.

Prediction: Over 224.5 (-110)

Best bet

Resolving the Knicks' season is just too painful not to bet against. Players being asked about a coach’s future is never a good sign. Neither is resting nearly every veteran on the team.

Julius Randle has started to find some form of late, averaging 22.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game since the break, but he has shot only 38.2% in that timespan. Barrett is shooting only 40.6% in the same timespan.

New York has no high-volume scorer who even borders on efficiency, and against Charlotte, one is vital to keep up.

The Hornets will run, they will score, and there is no reason to think the Knicks will do much of either.

Pick: Hornet -7 (-110)

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