The Los Angeles Lakers continue their post-break push against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, but will be without LeBron James for this crucial Western Conference contest.
James injured his right foot in Sunday’s comeback win over Dallas, staying in the game to push L.A. to a third straight victory and its fourth in five games with this revamped roster. That run has Los Angeles on the cusp of the postseason cut-off, just half a game out of 10th place.
As for Memphis, it’s been tested in two games since the All-Star break with a tight loss to Philadelphia and most recently a blowout win over Denver at home on the weekend. The Grizzlies are a tough out on their own court, boasting a 25-5 SU mark with an 18-11-1 ATS record as hosts.
I run down the spread and Over/Under total for Tuesday’s tilt and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Grizzlies on February 28.
Lakers vs Grizzlies best odds
Lakers vs Grizzlies picks and predictions
A lack of LeBron sends the Lakers' odds into turmoil and will have the team looking to many of those role players to pick up the slack on offense, with a King-sized hole in the playbook.
One guy who will welcome the frenetic feel of this matchup with Memphis is guard Dennis Schroder. He thrives on tempo and is very much part of the engine powering L.A.’s pace.
Schroder has become more of a facilitator for the Lakers in February, watching his assists average spike to more than six per game after dishing out less than four dimes per outing to start the season. He recorded eight assists in the win over Dallas on the weekend, going Over his total of 5.5, and has topped his assist prop in seven of his last 10 games.
Tuesday’s assist total makes a jump to 7.5 (Over +115) with James out of the lineup. LeBron is such an active passer for L.A., recording almost seven assists per contest. His ability to get into the paint, draw defenders and find the open man makes everyone around him better.
Schroder also has the quickness to crack the painted area, but waiting for him inside is a tough interior defense in Memphis. The Grizzlies have an elite shot blocker in Jaren Jackson Jr., who will force Schroder to abandon his inside shots and look to dish off.
With D'Angelo Russell likely out of action again while recovering from an ankle injury, Schroder finds himself back in the starting lineup and playing major minutes after logging 35 against the Mavericks this past weekend.
Schroder had a fantastic day versus the Grizzlies in their lone meeting this season, scoring 19 points (10 of 11 on free throws) and recording eight assists in the upset win back in Janaury. With James out of action, Schroder will have the ball in his hands on almost every possession and is paying plus money to top his assist total once again.
My best bet: Dennis Schroder Over 7.5 assists (+115)
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Lakers vs Grizzlies spread analysis
Early lines for this game opened Memphis as low as -3.5 with James in the lineup for the Lakers. But after announcing his absence on Monday afternoon, this spread swung to as big as Grizzlies -9 with some buyback bringing the market consensus to -8.5 on Tuesday morning.
Los Angeles could also be missing guard D'Angelo Russell, who is doubtful with an ankle injury, and star forward Anthony Davis did pop up on the injury report but is expected to play tonight.
As evidenced by that opening line, bookmakers are buying into the new-look Lakers, who have played fantastic two-way basketball over their last five outings. The revamped roster has gelled quickly, with L.A. owning a 5.6 net rating in that span — versus -1.1 before the team’s overhaul in support staff around James and Davis.
All those new faces — and the absence of LeBron — makes this matchup with Memphis a difficult game to cap. Los Angeles did stun the Grizzlies 122-121 as a 7-point home underdog back on January 20, led by 29 points from Russell Westbrook, who is among a number of former Lakers playing elsewhere.
Memphis has had an up-and-down February, starting the month with three straight losses and pulling to 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS with the victory over the Nuggets on Saturday. Granted, three of those defeats came on the road and the Grizz are a different beast inside FedExForum, where they own a +10.6 margin versus -2.8 on the road.
Overall, the Grizzlies are 27-30-2 ATS on the season (but cover at a 62.1% clip at home) while the Lakers enter Tuesday with a 29-31-1 ATS count, including a 14-17-1 ATS mark on the road. Los Angeles is also 5-9 SU and ATS without LeBron in the lineup this season.
Lakers vs Grizzlies Over/Under analysis
Tuesday’s Over/Under total opened at high as 237 points before James was ruled out, and that has since sunk to 233.5 with further adjustment to as low as 232 with early play on the Under.
Los Angeles’ moves during the trade deadline hoped to spark this offense with a deeper rollcall of perimeter players, but those additions have had the biggest impact on defense. Over the past five games, L.A. has improved its defensive rating to 110.0 and has checked those foes to just over 110 points per game on 42.5% shooting from the field. That stretch includes two wins over Golden State, which runs a similar up-tempo pace as Tuesday’s opponent.
The Grizzlies rank No. 6 in pace rating and push the basketball in transition better than most. Memphis attempts the second-highest rate of field goals in the league and that activity has the Grizz bagging an average of 118.3 points per homestand.
But as much as Memphis likes to get up-and-down the floor, defense is the backbone of the No. 2 seed in the West. The Grizzlies are second in advanced defensive rating and give up less than 108 points per game on their home court – 8.4 points less than on the road.
Their biggest weakness is defending the perimeter, which is something Memphis may not have to worry about against Los Angeles. The Lakers were a dodgy 3-point shooting team before their roster shakeup and with James and Russell missing, the team lacks a consistent threat from distance (shooting under 32% from deep the past five games).
While L.A.’s makeup was very different in their first meeting with Memphis last month, the tempo of these two teams remains very high. That total closed at 244 points after opening as low as 240.5 and the 122-121 final score just stayed below that closing number.
On the season, the Grizz are one of the better Under bets in basketball at 25-32-2 O/U with a 13-15-2 O/U count at home. The Lakers enter Tuesday at 31-30 O/U, including an 18-14 O/U record on the road.
Lakers vs Grizzlies betting trend to know
The Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between the L.A. Lakers and Grizzlies. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Grizzlies.
Lakers vs Grizzlies game info
| Location: | FedExForum, Memphis, TN |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 28, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
