The Dallas Mavericks come into tonight’s contest looking for their fifth straight win, but it’s Miami Heat star Tyler Herro who will be the focus of my Mavericks vs. Heat predictions.
Herro has been carrying Miami’s offense for much of the season and my NBA picks will look for him to pop off from 3-point range again on Sunday, November 24.
Mavericks vs Heat prediction
My best bet
Tyler Herro Over 3.5 made threes (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Tyler Herro was arguably already the Miami Heat’s most dynamic scorer last season but the point guard has taken another step this year, leading the team with 24.2 points per game.
A big chunk of his offense has come from his 3-point game and I’m expecting him to drop at least four treys against the Dallas Mavericks tonight.
Herro has seen his 3-point attempts skyrocket this season, jumping from 7.9 per game in 2023-24 to 9.7 this year. In fact, only six players in the NBA have attempted more threes than Herro this season.
He hasn’t just been chucking though, as his 4.4 makes from long range rank third in the league while his 45.2% shooting rate is the highest of his career. Herro has dropped at least four treys in six of his last eight contests, including a season-high 10 threes in a 40-point performance on November 12 against the Pistons.
He’s averaging 4.6 makes per game in November, so I’d expect that to continue against the Mavs.
Mavericks vs Heat same-game parlay
Tyler Herro Over 3.5 made threes
Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 rebounds
Under 225.5
Bam Adebayo has been by far Miami’s top rebounder this season, averaging 9.5 boards per game. The Heat center has snagged 11+ boards in three of his last four contests while the Mavericks are middle of the pack in terms of rebounds per game (12th) and opponent rebounds per game (18th).
Dallas (seventh) and Miami (eighth) are both Top 10 teams in terms of points against per game, and Luka Doncic’s absence should hurt the Mavericks’ offense.
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Mavericks vs Heat odds
Mavericks vs Heat live odds
Mavericks vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Dallas +2.5 | Miami -2.5
- Moneyline: Dallas +115 | Miami -135
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Mavericks vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Heat opened as 2.5-point favorites but betting pushed that number towards 3.5 at most books by Sunday morning.
- Dallas is 4-0 ATS in its last four games, but the Mavericks will be without leading scorer Luka Doncic tonight. Meanwhile, Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.
- The total opened at 222.5 points. The Over is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven and 4-2-1 in Dallas’ last seven.
Mavericks vs Heat trend
Miami is 9-4 in its last 13 home games against Dallas. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Heat.
How to watch Mavericks vs Heat
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-24-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 6:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Mavs TV, FDSN Sun |
Mavericks vs Heat latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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