Christmas Day NBA is here and the second game of the slate brings us a Western Conference Finals rematch between the Minnesota Timberwolves and Dallas Mavericks.
Although Dallas got the best of Minnesota in that series, our Timberwolves vs. Mavericks predictions like the visitors to play inside the +5 spread.
Continue reading for free NBA picks for this Christmas Day matchup at 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Timberwolves vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Timberwolves +5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
To put things quite frankly, the last week of play has been a massive lump of coal for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
They've tallied three straight losses, all while putting together a longer string of flat offensive performances, and have now failed to hit the 110-point mark in regulation since November 17. That is not a typo meant to be December 17 — yes, November 17.
But a matchup with the Dallas Mavericks might be exactly what Minnesota needs to light a fire under its offense. The Mavs bounced the Wolves in last year's Western Conference Finals and Dallas got the best of them in their first matchup of the season (120-114 on October 29).
But despite their struggles in the win-loss column, the Timberwolves have continued to be one of the league's best defensive teams — their 108.3 defensive rating is good for sixth on the year.
Five points may not seem like a tall task for a Mavs team that has gone 14-3 in their last 17, but in seven games against the Top-5 teams in defensive rating, they've won by more than five just twice.
Christmas day is a perfect time to sell high on Dallas and buy low on the Timberwolves
Timberwolves vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Timberwolves +5.5
Rudy Gobert Over 10.5 points
Luka Doncic Under 29.5 points
Despite having a lot of depth in the frontcourt, the Mavericks have struggled to defend against centers. Their 24.2 points allowed per game to the position is the fifth-worst mark on the year, which could mean a good output from Rudy Gobert on Christmas.
Gobert has gone over his total for this matchup in seven of 12 since joining the Timberwolves (including the postseason) and has seen his usage grow in each of the first three months of play.
On the other side of the matchup, we should expect Luka Doncic to have a quiet Christmas, at least by his standards. The Timberwolves have allowed just 21.9 points to point guards per game this year, good for the third-lowest mark on the season.
Doncic went over the total for this game in six of his eight games against Minnesota last year, but just twice in the last four. And in one of those games, he shot an entirely unsustainable 63.6% and in the other, he went to the free-throw line 10 times and made 5 of 11 threes.
Needless to say, you wouldn't expect either of those to repeat themselves regularly.
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Timberwolves vs Mavericks odds
Timberwolves vs Mavericks live odds
Timberwolves vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota +3 (-110) | Dallas -3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Minnesota +130 | Dallas -155
- Over/Under: Over 227 (-110) | Under 227 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Timberwolves vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Dallas' 17-11-1 record against the spread is good for a 60.7% cover rate that is seventh-best on the year.
- Minnesota has gone a nearly inverse 11-17 on the year, good for the seventh-worst.
- The Wolves have been road underdogs just twice this year and split the two
- Minnesota is 16-12 to the Under this year (eighth-best) and Dallas is 16-13 to the Over (seventh-best).
Timberwolves vs Mavericks trend
Despite playing well to the Over this year, Dallas is 9-4 to the Under as a home favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Timberwolves vs Mavericks
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 12-25-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Timberwolves vs Mavericks latest injuries
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