The Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks have seen a lot of each other this month. Tonight’s Eastern Conference Play-In game is the third meeting between these teams in the past eight days.
Atlanta beat Orlando 117-105 at home in the season finale Sunday, albeit with both teams resting all their key players, so there’s not much you can take away from that clash. However, their big guns battled back on April 8, with Hawks forward Onyeka Okongwu tying his career high with 30 points in a 119-112 road loss.
With playoff pressure ramping up the intensity — and the total dropping — my Hawks vs. Magic predictions and NBA picks don’t see a repeat performance from Atlanta’s forward on Tuesday, April 15.
Who will win Hawks vs Magic?
The Magic are 5-point home favorites, and the outright odds give them an implied win probability of almost 67%. Before Sunday’s meaningless finale, Orlando did win two of the previous three matchups with Atlanta, and I expect the Magic to win this one at home Tuesday.
Hawks vs Magic prediction
My best bet: Onyeka Okongwu Under 14.5 points (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Onyeka Okongwu had a monster game against the Orlando Magic on April 8. The Atlanta Hawks power forward finished with 30 points in a losing cause, picking up bonus buckets on the offensive glass and knocking down all eight of his free throws.
Okongwu grabbed seven offensive rebounds, which were flipped into 18 second-chance points from the USC product. That output is a bit of an anomaly for Orlando’s opponents.
The Magic rank among the best defenses in the league and don’t give away many extra possessions or offensive boards. Orlando allows a league-low 9.2 offensive rebounds against as well as a league-low 11.9 second-chance points per game.
In his two meetings with the Magic prior to that offensive eruption, Okongwu mustered just nine and 11 points, respectively. He shot a collective 6-for-7 from the charity stripe in those games and had just three total offensive rebounds.
Okongwu’s scoring total for Tuesday’s play-in game is at 14.5 points — one point shorter than his Over/Under for that April 8 matchup in Orlando (closed 13.5 O/U). The game total for that contest closed at 226 points — nine points higher than the current Over/Under of 217 for Tuesday’s tilt.
Okongwu’s scoring props have ranged between 13.5 and 16.5 over the past 10 games, with those game totals all much higher than the 226-point number on April 8 and significantly bigger than Tuesday’s 217 Over/Under. He’s gone Over those point props in only four of those 10 games.
Playoff basketball— even Play-In games — are played with much more intensity than the regular season, especially when involving a defense-first team like the Magic. Orlando is No. 3 in advanced defensive rating on its own floor, allowing a league-low 103.5 points per game inside the Kia Center.
Okongwu’s early player projections all come in shorter than the 14.5-point total. I feel his 30-point performance on April 8 is inflating this scoring total and the current market is way too high, consider the Magic are fantastic at clamping down on the ways Okongwu scores his points.
Hawks vs Magic same-game parlay
Onyeka Okongwu Under 14.5 points
Paolo Banchero 5+ assists
Magic moneyline
Okongwu’s big game against Orlando last time is puffing up his point total much higher than it should be for a playoff game on the road.
Paolo Banchero can do it all for Orlando. He’s projected to dish out at least five assists versus Atlanta.
The Magic will benefit from home court in this Play-In game and clamp down on defense to advance as the No. 7 seed.
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Hawks vs Magic odds
Hawks vs Magic live odds
Hawks vs Magic opening odds
- Spread: Atlanta +4.5 | Orlando -4.5
- Moneyline: Atlanta +174 | Orlando -195
- Over/Under: Over 218 | Under 218
Odds courtesy of bet365
Hawks vs Magic spread and Over/Under analysis
• Orlando opened as low as -4.5 at some books and has climbed as high as -5.5, with early money showing up on the home team.
• The total opened at 218 and has dropped to as low as 216.5 before coming back up to 217 points O/U.
• According to Covers Consensus, 59% of picks are taking the points with the underdog Hawks while 63% of total picks are taking the Over.
Hawks vs Magic trend
Orlando is 20-8 SU and 17-11 ATS (61%) as a home favorite this season, with those games going 12-16 Over/Under (57% Unders). Find more NBA betting trends for Hawks vs. Magic.
How to watch Hawks vs Magic
| Location | Kia Center, Orlando, FL |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-15-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Hawks vs Magic latest injuries
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