If the Golden State Warriors are going to make one last run at the NBA title, they’ll first need to advance out of the Play-In Tournament.
Stephen Curry and the Dubs battle the Memphis Grizzlies in the opening Play-In game tonight, and it’s Curry’s defense — rather than his explosive offense — I’m looking at for one of my best NBA picks and Grizzlies vs. Warriors predictions on April 15.
Steph Curry player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 1.5 steals
(+132 at bet365) - SGP pick
Over 1.5 steals
5+ threes
Warriors moneyline
(+320 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Steph Curry best bet
Steph Curry Over 1.5 steals (+132 at bet365)
Steph Curry knows what it takes to win in the postseason. It’s not all about showering down 3-pointers. Rather, flipping defense into offense is the most efficient way to crush your opponent.
His quick hands have averaged 1.1 steals this season, and his thievery has peaked just before the playoffs. Since the All-Star break, Curry has averaged 1.4 steals and has recorded 2+ steals in four of his last eight games.
A five-steal performance against the Memphis Grizzlies on April 1 punctuates that streak. In his three games against the Grizzlies, Curry has 10 total steals (5, 1, 4) against a Memphis offense that allowed 8.6 steals against on the season (20th).
Memphis plays the fastest tempo in the NBA, and with that speed comes carelessness. The team has coughed up 15.7 turnovers per contest (third most) with the 23rd-highest turnovers-per-possession rate (14.6%).
Looking at the four meetings between the Grizzlies and Warriors this season, those encounters were played at a very speedy pace, with a rating of higher than 105.0, which means plenty of possessions and chances for steals. Memphis averaged 17.8 turnovers in those four games with Golden State and had the ball stolen 44 times — 11 steals per game.
Curry’s steals props have bounced between 0.5 and 1.5 steals, with juice swinging drastically depending on the number. However, he's surpassed those steal totals six times in his last 10 games. Steph also finds another gear in the postseason and averages 1.5 steals per game in the tournament for his career.
Player projections have Curry down for at least one steal on Tuesday, with many sitting close to the 1.5-steal total. I’m much higher with my projection, based on his past success stealing the ball against the Grizz and Memphis’ pace of play. My number comes out to 1.6 steals from Curry, giving good value to the Over 1.5 at +132.
Steph Curry same-game parlay
Steph Curry Over 1.5 steals
Steph Curry 5+ threes
Warriors moneyline
The Grizzlies give the ball away a lot, and Curry has 10 total steals in his three games against Memphis this season.
Curry dropping threes in the postseason is a given. Projections call for at least five triples tonight.
Golden State is a solid favorite at home and will get past the Grizzlies to earn the No. 7 seed in the West.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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