Lakers vs Heat Picks and Predictions: AD or Not, Heat Have Edge Against L.A.

The Los Angeles Lakers have won and covered in two of their last three games and they could potentially get Anthony Davis back for this meeting with the Miami Heat.

The Heat are coming off of a road loss to the Atlanta Hawks though, so they’ll be looking to get back in the win column tonight.

Will Los Angeles roll into South Beach and earn a win over Miami? Check out our NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Heat.

Lakers vs Heat odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Heat opened as 5-point favorites against the Lakers, but they have since gone down to 4-point favorites in this one. A lot of that likely has to do with Davis being upgraded to questionable here. Meanwhile, the total has stayed put since opening at 216.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lakers vs Heat predictions

• Prediction: Heat -4 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 216.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Heat -4 (-110)

Predictions made on 01/23/2022 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Lakers vs Heat game info

• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Sunday, January 23, 2023
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBA TV

Lakers vs Heat betting preview

Injuries

Lakers: Anthony Davis F (Questionable), Kendrick Nunn G (Out), Sekou Doumbouya F (Out).
Heat: KZ Okpala F (Questionable), Kyle Lowry G (Questionable), P.J. Tucker F (Questionable), Tyler Herro G (Questionable), Markieff Morris F (Out), Victor Oladipo G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in the last six games the Heat have played. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Heat.

Lakers vs Heat picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

LeBron James played some of the best basketball of his career with the Heat, so he’ll be looking forward to being back in this building again. Unfortunately for him, he’ll be met by a Miami team that is absolutely relentless on both ends of the floor.

LeBron will likely be covered by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo for long stretches in this game, meaning he'll have his work cut out for him. He could also have to deal with reintegrating Davis into the lineup. Getting Davis back is obviously a good thing for the Lakers, but there may be some growing pains that come with having him back in the lineup.

While Los Angeles is still trying to figure out exactly what type of team it is this year, Miami’s culture has been in place for a long time. This Heat team is going to play extremely hard on the defensive end, and it will play a nice, modern brand of basketball on offense — and it will do so with an unselfish group of players. The Lakers’ inconsistency in style could really haunt them against a team as organized on both ends of the floor as the Heat. 

Even if some key players end up being out for Miami, the team has been just fine when plugging in players. As long as Butler and Adebayo are out there with a couple of shooters around them, the Heat are the right play here.

Also, Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra won’t hesitate to attack Russell Westbrook’s defense. Westbrook is a lousy off-ball defender, so he’ll have his players in constant motion on offense. He could also have his guys force Westbrook into taking bad jumpers on the other end. 

Prediction: Heat -4 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Under has hit in each of the last four games that the Heat have played and it’s also 5-1 in their last six games. Miami is really digging in on the defensive end lately, and this is a team that’s seventh in the league in defensive rating on the year. The Heat should be able to make things rather tough on the Lakers, who are just 23rd in the league in offensive rating. Even if Davis plays, he likely won’t be able to instantly solve the team’s problems. 

Over the last two seasons, the Under is actually 20-9 when the Lakers are coming off of a road win. The Under is also 26-7 when the Lakers have played against teams that outrebound their opponents by at least 3.0 rebounds per game since Frank Vogel took over. That means that Los Angeles’ games against great rebounding teams tend to be low-scoring. In fact, the average total points scored in those games was 210.1 points per game. 

The Under is the play.

Prediction: Under 216.5 (-110)

Best bet

While the Lakers might be getting back a legitimate two-way stud in this game, it’s not certain yet that he’ll be playing. And considering this would be a good line for Miami even if he was out there, it’s worth taking a shot on the Heat at this number. It’s just not often that you get a much better team laying this few points at home. 

Also, it’s worth mentioning that the Heat are 11-2 ATS when playing at home after a loss by three or fewer points against a division rival under Spoelstra. With that in mind, the Heat should play with some real fire after losing a close one to the Hawks last time out.

Pick: Heat -4 (-110)

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