Lakers vs Rockets Picks and Predictions: Back Jarred Vanderbilt to Succeed on Sunday

With only five games remaining in the NBA regular season, the Los Angeles Lakers have to like where they’re at heading down the home stretch.

The schedule makers throw L.A. a layup Sunday with the hapless Houston Rockets playing host to LeBron James & Co. The NBA odds have Los Angeles laying double digits as it pushes to improve its spot in the Western Conference postseason picture.

I break down the point spread and total for Sunday’s showdown and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Lakers at Rockets on April 2.

Lakers vs Rockets best odds

Lakers vs Rockets picks and predictions

Even with their postseason fate still hanging in the balance, the Lakers’ Sunday trip to face the lowly Rockets as double-digits favorites is a tough spot to get up for. We’ve seen L.A. come out dangerously flat against weaker opponents the past month and a half.

If there’s one guy who won’t be going “easy like Sunday morning” at Houston, it’s forward Jarred Vanderbilt.

The Lakers’ 6-foot-8 ball of energy plays with pace and passion no matter the opponent, and has a great opportunity to fuel this Los Angeles team today. Vanderbilt, who averaged 7.5 points in just over 26 minutes per game in March, could see extra run if this spread says anything.

With a tall total and the Lakers’ laying the lumber, game script calls for a one-sided win for Los Angeles, which would jump at the opportunity to rest Anthony Davis and LeBron James in the second half. If that’s the case, expect Vanderbilt to log extra minutes and added touches on offense.

Vanderbilt received high praise from L.A. coach Darvin Ham for his efforts against Minnesota last time out, playing smothering defense while adding 12 points and five rebounds to his stat line. The game prior, Vanderbilt had eight points and seven boards in a victory over Chicago.

Given tonight’s total is on the high end for Lakers games (235), and the team total is upwards of 123.5 points against a dreadful Houston defense, there are plenty of points to go around. I have Vanderbilt projected for eight points, while some other models out there have his projected points even higher for Sunday.

He did score 13 points against the Rockets back on March 15, shooting 6-for-13 from the floor and getting 35 minutes of run with Los Angeles playing without James, Davis and D’Angelo Russell. I don’t expect him to log the same workload tonight, but game script says he’ll have more minutes to shine on Sunday.

My best bet: Vanderbilt Over 6.5 points (-125 at PointsBet)

Lakers vs Rockets spread analysis

The Lakers opened between -10.5 and -12 for this trip to Houston, with the market consensus landing on -11.5 as of Sunday morning.

James is listed as questionable for this contest as he works his way back from a foot injury. He’s played the past three games, but given the quality of opponent, he may opt to rest today. That said, with L.A. in eighth place and just one game back of No. 6 in the West, the Lakers would love to avoid the play-in tournament and rest up before the start of the playoffs.

Also on the injury report for Los Angeles is Davis. However, he's expected to play tonight, and has been leading the charge for the Lakers with a pair of 38-point efforts the last two times out – both victories.

Los Angeles has won five of its last six outings to jump up the standings in the conference, and this new-look lineup formed during the trade deadline has been a 180 for the franchise. Since making those moves, Los Angeles is 14-7 SU and 13-8 against the spread, including a 4-1 ATS count in the past five games heading into Sunday.

The recent returns of James and Russell have sparked the offense to complement a defense that has soared up the NBA stats since swapping out the bulk of their lineup in mid-February. Los Angeles owns the top-ranked defensive rating in the league over the past 21 games (110.3), and is averaging 118 points with those key pieces back on offense.

Houston, on the other hand, isn’t playing for much at this point in the season. The Rockets are at the bottom of the West and hoping to win the Victor Wembanyama lottery in the upcoming draft.

Houston knocked off fellow bottom-feeder and top contender for Wembanyama’s service, the Detroit Pistons, last time out. That snapped a seven-game winless drought. In fact, the Rockets went 6-11 SU in March (8-7-2 ATS), with one of those rare victories coming against the Purple and Gold.

Los Angeles fell 114-110 at Houston back on March 15, with the Lakers shooting just 38% from the field with a lineup missing Davis, Russell and James. The Rockets connected on 53% of their shots, dominated the offensive glass, and covered as 2.5-point home underdogs. 

Lakers vs Rockets Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s Over/Under hit the board at 233.5 points, and has jumped to as high as 235 points at some books on Sunday morning.

As mentioned, the Lakers' offense has really seen an uptick in production with the stars back in action, with Los Angeles going 4-2 Over/Under during this recent hot streak.

Over the past six games, L.A. owns an offensive rating of 117.6. It's a drastic improvement from the team’s metric of 112.9 in the previous 15 outings since swapping out the bulk of the roster in mid-February, and dealing with injuries to James and Russell.

Tonight’s Over/Under is the 10th total of 230 points or more L.A. has seen since Feb. 11, with the team going 2-8 Over/Under against those taller numbers. The Lakers' defense has limited foes to just 111.0 points per game in those 21 contests (9-12 O/U), and faces a Houston attack that rated out 21st in offense last month (114.9).

The Rockets' wretched defense has led to a series of Over results in their recent outings, with the team allowing more than 127 points over the last six games. That’s led to a 5-1 Over/Under record in those outings.

Lakers vs Rockets betting trend to know

Over is 4-1-1 in the Lakers’ last six road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Rockets.

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