Lakers vs Suns Picks and Predictions: Los Angeles Puts Up a Fight

You could almost forget that Anthony Davis' foot injury might have just ended the Los Angeles Lakers season. For at least one night, the Lakers put on a brave face and gutted out a victory without him, pulling off a dramatic down-to-the-wire win against the Washington Wizards. But a new kind of test — a new level of opponent — comes tonight as they square off against the Phoenix Suns on the second leg of a road back-to-back.

Phoenix hasn’t been playing to its capabilities recently and is dealing with multiple injuries as well, but Devin Booker has proven more than capable of carrying the Suns to victory anyway. 

Our NBA picks and predictions for Lakers vs. Suns zero in on the disparity in production between these two teams in the second quarter.

Lakers vs Suns best odds

Lakers vs Suns picks and predictions

It has typically not been good policy to bet on the Lakers or against the Suns this season, but this is a special case. The Suns have hit some adversity recently. Their recent 2-5 skid has seen them sport the second-worst point differential in that span, and the worst spread differential in the NBA — underperforming their lines by an average of 9.7 points.

With two losses to the New Orleans Pelicans, and embarrassing losses to the Houston Rockets and the Boston Celtics, the mighty Suns have looked awfully mortal. Devin Booker’s return hasn’t fixed every problem either.

Booker scored 25 straight points at one point against the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday and finished with 58 in all. It was his second 50-point game this season, and he now owns the scoring record in three different arenas. But without that explosion, the Suns were on the path to badly lose that game. Booker is still listed as questionable for Monday.

They’re still missing Cameron Payne, and Deandre Ayton is also questionable to play, as missing bodies and recent difficulties open the window for a bet like this: Lakers to win the second quarter. 

Right now, the Lakers and the Suns have one of the largest scoring differentials specific to the second quarter in the NBA. The Lakers are the second-best second-quarter scoring team in the association, scoring on average 31.2 points in that frame, while Phoenix is all the way down at 20th, with just 28 points on average.

That average has been slipping for the Suns recently, and they’ve scored 23 points on average over their last three second quarters played and just 19 in their previous game. 

It’s an unusual quirk that’s a product of the Lakers' and Suns’ rotations, as the second quarter sees LeBron James and Russell Westbrook taking turns as the sole playmaker on the court, giving them both maximum spacing to work with. Meanwhile, Booker usually spends the first few minutes or more of the second quarter on the bench. 

I wouldn’t take the Lakers to win this game outright at anything near this price, but it’s great value for them to win the second frame.

My best bet: Lakers second quarter moneyline (+155 at Betway)

Lakers vs Suns spread analysis

Though the Lakers performed admirably last night and I like their chances to steal the second quarter, Davis is an enormous loss for this team. Though LeBron has picked it up lately, Davis was the Lakers' best player on both ends this season and had easily played at the level of a Top-10 guy. Los Angeles is one of the most top-heavy teams in the association, so losing its best player is about as devastating as it gets.

The starting lineup against the Wizards last night was LeBron, Lonnie Walker, Dennis Schroder, Austin Reaves, and Thomas Bryant. That’s a half-decent offensive group even if it’s small and has some redundancy, but it’s an absolute tire fire on defense.

On top of that, Reaves left the game early in the second half with an apparent ankle injury. He returned shortly afterward to give it a go before quickly leaving again. He’s not listed on the injury report, but I’d be surprised if he’s healthy and whole with such a short turnaround. It might seem odd to fixate on a player of Reaves' stature, but as a starter who can pass and shoot, he’s been essential to the Lakers' offensive success recently.

It’s hard to get a read on Phoenix. They struggled mightily in Booker’s absence, and he’s still listed as day-to-day with a groin injury. A -9.5 spread is not reflective of its level of play of late, and it took 58 points for Phoenix to narrowly beat the Pelicans two days ago. Still, the Lakers have been really bad playing on limited rest, going 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games playing on the second night of a back-to-back.

Lakers vs Suns Over/Under analysis

The total for this game has been steadily rising from around 229.5 to 231 at most books. A total that high expects Phoenix will be able to tear through what is now a wafer-thin Lakers defense. There’s no way to replace AD’s defensive impact, and with him out, the Lakers' best chance is to shift into an all-offense team, featuring a five-out group with Bryant at the five. 

Bryant is a true stretch big and a wonderful offensive player who is shooting 42.9% from three. He’s also begun to develop a nice pick-and-roll chemistry with LeBron, capable of picking and popping or rolling hard and finishing as he did many times against the Wizards last night. He’s also a brutal defender with poor lateral movement and an increase in his overall role with AD out foretells a large total for Monday. 

The question is whether LA has the stamina to keep pace with Phoenix on offense long enough to hit the Over. The trend pushes us toward no. The Under is 10-2 in the Lakers' last 12 games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. But whereas the Lakers had defense-focused units they could previously rely on when on heavy legs, they’re now missing Davis and Patrick Beverley. LA is going to try and make this a shootout, it’s just a matter of whether or not the flesh is willing.

Lakers vs Suns betting trend to know

The Under is 10-2 in Lakers' last 12 games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes on the previous day. Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Suns.

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