Magic vs Warriors Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Splash Brother Bounce Back

If the Golden State Warriors’ New Year’s resolution is to get back into the playoff picture, the first thing they’re going to need to do is snap out of their current three-game funk. They’ll get a chance to do that at home tonight against a surprisingly solid Orlando Magic side tied for the fourth-best record in the East.

Somehow, the Dubs, just 9-8 at Chase Center this year, are three-point favorites in the NBA odds, likely due to the fact the Magic ended 2023 losing two of three.

Read below for my free NBA picks for Orlando vs. Golden State on Tuesday, January 2.

Magic vs Warriors odds

Magic vs Warriors predictions

After a very slow start to the campaign, it looked as though long-time Golden State Warriors guard Klay Thompson might have turned the corner. Starting in mid-December, he ripped off six straight games scoring at least 20 points, and Golden State went 5-1 in those games. But the wheels have come off lately, with three straight losses to three playoff-positioned foes, all starting with a 120-114 loss to Denver on Christmas Day where Thompson scored just nine points.

The next loss, 114-102 to Miami, wasn’t great either, as Klay scored 13. Last time out was his worst effort of the season — not including the Minnesota game where he got ejected within the first two minutes — as Thompson scored just three points in a 132-122 loss to Dallas.

If you’re scoring at home, Thompson has 25 points across three games on 8-for-34 shooting, a lowly 23.5% clip. This includes a dim 6-for-22 mark from 3-point range (27.2%).

His total set for the Orlando Magic game tonight is 16.5 points, though you can find 15.5 with a lot of juice attached. Even with his struggles, this is the first time Thompson has gone three straight games scoring 16 points or less all season.

In the seven previous games this year when Thompson went below 16 in a game, he scored at least that many points the next game six times.

Orlando has the fifth-best defensive rating, but it is middle of the pack in terms of field-goal defense, with teams shooting at a 47.1% mark.

Professional pride coupled with Golden State’s coaching staff trying to get their other Splash Brother off should be enough for Thompson to break out of this recent ugly stretch.

My best bet: Klay Thompson Over 16.5 points (-110 at DraftKings)

Magic vs Warriors same-game parlay

Klay Thompson Over 16.5 points

Stephen Curry Over 4.5 made threes

Paolo Banchero Under 23.5 points

+500 at DraftKings

He’s the best shooter of all time, but even Stephen Curry is prone to a little struggle now and again. Across Golden State's three-game skid, Curry has hit just 11-for-36 from beyond the arc, a lowly 30.6% rate by his standards. He’s been a bit more sporadic of late, going Under 4.5 made threes (the line set for Tuesday) in three of his last four.

However, Orlando has witnessed first-hand deadeye shooting from Steph. In his past five meetings against the Magic, Curry has hit at least five triples in each game and has crossed this total in seven of the last 10 head-to-heads. Among those games, Curry has a pair of 10-make games, one 8-for-15 performance, and three games where he’s drilled seven moneyballs. I like this as a get-right game for him.

Of course, Golden State’s backcourt will try to offset the punishment from Orlando’s frontcourt, paced by reigning rookie of the year Paolo Banchero.

The 6-foot-10 Banchero is coming off his best two-game stretch of the season. He posted 28 points, nine boards, and seven assists in a 112-107 loss to the Phoenix Suns a game after dropping 29 points, 10 rebounds, and four dimes in a 117-108 decision over the Knicks.

He’s played the Dubs twice in his young career and is undefeated. The most recent was a 25-point outing last January in a 115-101 win. Banchero also went for 22 in a 130-129 win over the Dubs in November 2022. Banchero’s season-and-a-half sample size shows that he is still a young player, where consistently putting up big numbers is still the goal.

Only once in his career has Banchero scored 25 or more points in three straight games — and that was the first three games of his NBA career. Prior to this recent stretch, Banchero dropped 25 and matched it in the next game only once. He’s failed to eclipse that mark in the second game seven other times.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Magic vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis

The Magic have been as long as 4.5-point dogs on the spread, but almost all the books have shaved that by a point, with some sites dropping to as low as three points.

Orlando is second to only OKC for the best spread record, going 22-10-0 ATS. The Warriors are just 6-11-0 ATS at home this season.

The total has stayed above 230.5 points and has climbed as high as 232.5. The Dubs’ Over record is a respectable 18-14-0, while Orlando’s Over record is 15-17-0.

Magic vs Warriors betting trend to know

Orlando has covered the spread in seven of the last 10 head-to-head matchups vs Golden State. Find more NBA betting trends for Magic vs. Warriors.

Magic vs Warriors game info

Magic vs Warriors latest injuries

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