The Oklahoma City Thunder exacted their revenge last night, routing the Cavaliers in a matchup of the two best records in the NBA. Will that set up Oklahoma City for a letdown tonight against the Dallas Mavericks?
Do not bet on it, mostly because OKC has avoided that kind of pratfall in all of its back-to-backs this season.
My Thunder vs. Mavericks prediction and NBA picks put faith in Oklahoma City to continue its winning ways, both on the scoreboard and against the spread. Tip comes at 8:30 ET on Friday, January 17.
Thunder vs Mavericks prediction
My best bet
Thunder -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Oklahoma City Thunder may have a postseason reckoning awaiting them. For decades, we have all seen young teams stymied on their first deep postseason runs. The question is, was last year’s second-round exit enough of a test to steel Oklahoma City already? Perhaps.
Until then, it seems nothing can slow down these Thunder. Their 20-point win against the Cavaliers last night was hardly that close, leading by 38 points after three quarters and resting their starters in the fourth. That warrants notice tonight on the second half of a back-to-back.
No Oklahoma City starter played more than 30 minutes. Two of them did not even crack 20 minutes.
So, first of all, this is hardly your usual back-to-back. Even the travel was decidedly reasonable. Oklahoma City to Dallas? Might as well bus that.
But the Thunder’s youth do not care about any back-to-back. They are 5-1-1 against the spread on the second night of seven back-to-backs this season, the sole ATS loss coming when favored by 12.5 against the Blazers in mid-November, scuffling to a casual 10-point win.
Oklahoma City is 4-0-1 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back when the spread is in single digits. Fatigue just does not exist for a roster with an average age of 24.
Obviously, fatigue can exist, and the Thunder playing their sixth game in 10 nights could start to create that stress, but it warrants just as much notice that Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in that stretch, going 4-0 ATS in its last four and exceeding expectations by an average of 16.5 points in those four games.
Thunder vs Mavericks same-game parlay
Thunder -7.5
Under 225 points
Kyrie Irving Under 22.5 points
Of the seven back-to-backs the Thunder have endured thus far, the Under has cashed on the second night five times, including in three of the five games with spreads in single digits, one of those exceptions being a push.
Furthermore, the Dallas Mavericks are simply running out of worthwhile offensive threats. Luka Doncic, Dereck Lively II, and Dante Exum are all listed out tonight, while Kyrie Irving is struggling through a back sprain. He may play tonight — Mavs head coach Jason Kidd expects him to — but with hardly anyone else drawing attention against the best defense in the NBA, Irving will get few clean looks at the basket.
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Thunder vs Mavericks odds
Thunder vs Mavericks live odds
Thunder vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Oklahoma City -6 | Dallas +6
- Moneyline: Oklahoma City -245 | Dallas +200
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 | Under 221.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Thunder vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder opened as six-point favorites as they put the finishing touches on their blowout of the Cavs, a number that climbed as high as -8.5 on Friday midmorning.
- The spread resettled at -7.5 on Friday afternoon, perhaps a thought that the initial climb was an overreaction to the blowout, perhaps a nod to Irving’s expected availability.
- The total opened at 221.5 and spent the overnight steadily climbing, reaching 224 before the Friday workday began and peaking at 225 in midmorning.
Thunder vs Mavericks trend
Dallas has gone 0-4 ATS in its last four and 1-9 in its last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Mavericks.
How to watch Thunder vs Mavericks
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas |
| Date: | Friday, 1-17-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FDSN, KFAA, TSN |
Thunder vs Mavericks latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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