The Baltimore Ravens’ Super Bowl dreams have a tough road to plow through frozen Orchard Park in the NFL Divisional Round, where the Buffalo Bills and their Super Bowl-starved fanbase wait on Sunday night.
My Ravens vs. Bills predictions believe Lamar Jackson & Co. will be leaning on their strengths in this showdown, including an “old reliable” in tight end Mark Andrews.
Here are my best NFL picks for this highly-anticipated showdown on January 19.
Ravens vs Bills prediction
Ravens vs Bills best bet
Mark Andrews Over 39.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The last time the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens met, Mark Andrews was M.I.A.
The veteran tight end started the season slowly, losing reps and receptions to fellow TE Isaiah Likely. Andrews drew just one target and was without a catch in the Ravens’ 35-10 win at home in Week 4.
Ever since that late-September goose egg, however, Andrews has been the true TE1 for Baltimore. From Week 5 onward, Andrews has averaged 4.6 targets and 3.8 receptions per game, putting up almost 47 yards an outing in the final 13 games of the regular season.
He finished with just two catches on three targets for 27 yards in the win over Pittsburgh in the Wild Card Round — a result that had more to do with Baltimore relentlessly running the ball (only passed 21 times) than Andrews’ effort.
While the rushing attack will always be the anchor of the Baltimore offense, the Bills are a much more capable offense than the Steelers and will punch back, not allowing the Ravens to just run out the clock with a big lead. And given this tall total and tight spread, Jackson is going to have to make plays with the pass.
Buffalo does mix coverage but primarily plays zone schemes, which is something Andrews loves to exploit. The veteran TE is great at finding gaps in the zone coverage and ranks as the No. 7 tight end versus zone at PFF.
The Bills used to be notoriously stingy to the TE position but with coverage linebackers losing a step and their safeties not being much better, we’ve seen Buffalo allow the 12th-most receptions to tight ends in the regular season.
Andrews’ receiving yards total sits at 39.5 yards — a bar he topped in five of his last eight regular season games. Player projections for the Divisional Round are positive, with almost all models consulted sitting above 40 yards with a ceiling of 45 yards.
Get more analysis by watching the Sharp 600 podcast!
Get more Ravens vs. Bills picks and Divisional Round best bets from Jason Logan — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!
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Ravens vs Bills same-game parlay
Mark Andrews Over 39.5 receiving yards
Josh Allen anytime TD
Over 51.5
Andrews can find space in the Bills schemes and is projected for as many as 45 receiving yards.
The Bills’ red-zone offense stalled against Denver, and I see Josh Allen running it in himself in those important spots.
With the Top 2 offenses in EPA per play and two QBs that can make magic happen, I believe we get plenty of points on Sunday night.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL Playoffs picks and odds from Covers
Ravens vs Bills odds
Ravens vs Bills live odds
Ravens vs Bills opening odds
- Spread: Baltimore +1 | Buffalo -1
- Moneyline: Baltimore +100 | Buffalo -120
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Ravens vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
- Buffalo opened as a 1-point home favorite but that line didn’t last long, with early opinion taking the Ravens and pushing this line over the fence to Baltimore -1. According to BetMGM books, almost 60% of ticket count and more than 70% of the handle is on the visitor.
- The total hit the board at 51.5 points at most books and has stayed put this week. BetMGM sportsbooks are reporting 62% of bets and 57% of the money on the Under.
- The Week 4 meeting between these AFC powers closed with Baltimore as a 2.5-point favorite. The Ravens won and covered 35-10 with that final score playing Under the closing total of 47.5 points. Baltimore entered that game 1-2 while Buffalo was a perfect 3-0 to start the schedule.
Ravens vs Bills betting trend to know
Home underdogs are 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in the playoffs since 2020 and 10-3-1 ATS since 2015. Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Bills.
Ravens vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-19-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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