Mavericks vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Milwaukee Prevails in Giannis-Luka Duel

The Milwaukee Bucks rested their starters in what ended up being a 34-point loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday, but they’ll have them all back when they host the Dallas Mavericks in a Sunday afternoon tilt.

Can Milwaukee bounce back and take down Luka Doncic & Co.? Continue reading our Mavericks vs. Bucks NBA picks and predictions to find out. 

Mavericks vs Bucks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Bucks were favored by 5 when this line became available to the betting public, and it’s mostly still at that same number. One book has it at -4.5 but it appears to be staying at -5 at a majority of sportsbooks. The total, meanwhile, opened at 228 and can be found anywhere from 227.5 to 228.5. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs Bucks predictions

• Prediction: Bucks -4.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 228.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Doncic Over 8.5 assists (+100)

Predictions made on 4/3/2022 at 2:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mavericks vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Sunday, April 3, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Mavericks vs Bucks betting preview

Key injuries

Mavericks: Sterling Brown G (Out), Trey Burke G (Out), Maxi Kleber F (Questionable), Theo Pinson G (Out), Tim Hardaway Jr. G (Out).
Bucks: DeAndre’ Bembry G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Mavericks are 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Bucks.

Mavericks vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Bucks got absolutely destroyed by the Clippers two nights ago, but that was without their best players.

Now, Milwaukee will have everybody back in a meeting with Dallas that the team can really use. The Bucks are still fighting for positioning in the Eastern Conference standings, so these remaining couple of games mean a lot to everybody in that same battle. And while the Mavericks are a great basketball team, this is really one that should go the Bucks’ way. 

While the Mavericks are seventh in the league in defensive rating this year, the Bucks are actually fifth in the NBA in offensive rating. Look for Milwaukee to really lean into Giannis Antetokounmpo’s strengths here, and that’s having him attack the basket at will.

For as good as the Mavericks can be at rotating and contesting shots, the team doesn’t have anybody that can withhold Giannis’ powerful drives to the basket. The team will also potentially be without Kleber in this game, and he’s one of their best big-man defenders. That would make it even easier for Giannis today.

Milwaukee will also have both Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton in this game, and they’re both capable of going off today. The Mavericks don’t have any guards that are big enough to prevent Holiday from getting to the rim, and Middleton can hit shots over anybody. Also, with those two being the next best players on the Bucks after Giannis, it’s just hard to overlook the discrepancy between them and the players around Doncic. 

Also, the Bucks defense should make life tough for Dallas. Giannis can guard Doncic in spots, and he has the ability to really throw the Mavs star off his game. Brook Lopez is also very good at using verticality to defend the paint, so he’ll be meeting Doncic at the time whenever he chooses to attack.

Milwaukee is 10-4 against the spread in its last 14 games and 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. Lay the number.

Prediction: Bucks -4.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

The Under has hit in each of the last three meetings between these two teams, and they combined to score only 197 points when they faced one another back on December 23.

The fact that the Mavericks are seventh in the league in defensive rating and the Bucks are 14th in the NBA certainly doesn’t hurt. Both of these teams really pride themselves on their abilities to get after it on that end, and the Mavericks' dead-last pace rating also helps. Dallas is going to try as hard as it can to slow this one down. 

The Under is also 42-17 in the last 59 games that Dallas has played as an underdog. It’s also 6-1 in the last seven games that the Mavericks have played when coming off a straight-up win.

Prediction: Under 228.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Best bet

Doncic had only six assists against the Washington Wizards last game, but he had recorded at least nine assists in five of his previous eight prior games. Doncic has the highest usage rate in the NBA this year, and he also happens to be one of the more unselfish players in basketball. That’s a great combination when you’re looking for somebody to put up a high assist number, and we like Doncic to do just that here. 

Doncic hasn’t yet faced the Bucks this season, but he did average 11.0 assists per game against Milwaukee in two meetings last year. It makes quite a bit of sense that he has no trouble dishing them out against the Bucks, as they have quite a few defenders that can make things tough on him at the rim.

With that, Doncic is going to use his size and skill to drive to the basket, but he could look to find teammates a little more often than usual in this matchup. Doncic isn’t going to want to challenge Antetokounmpo or Lopez at the rim very often, so look for him to rack up assists instead. 

Pick: Luka Doncic Over 8.5 assists (+100)

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