The Dallas Mavericks don’t have any downtime before starting a four-game non-conference road trip against the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday.
Dallas, which is battling for the No. 3 spot in the West, took care of business against the Lakers at home last night but now plays the second of back-to-back contests and its third game in four days in Cleveland. Books have installed the Mavs as NBA betting favorites on the road.
Here are our picks and predictions for Mavericks at Cavaliers on March 30.
Mavericks vs Cavaliers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Dallas opened as 3.5-point road chalk before the conclusion of Tuesday’s victory over Los Angeles and jumped to -4.5 after that one-sided win, but dipped to -2.5 with fear that the Mavs may rest key players on the second of back-to-back games. The total hit the board at 213.5 points and climbed to 214.5 before coming back down as low as the original number.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mavericks vs Cavaliers predictions
Predictions made on 3/30/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mavericks vs Cavaliers game info
• Location: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
• Date: Wednesday, March 30, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Ohio, Bally Sports Southwest
Mavericks vs Cavaliers betting preview
Key injuries
Mavericks: Spencer Dinwiddie G (Out), Brandon Knight G (Questionable), Theo Pinson G (Questionable), Sterling Brown G (Out), Tim Hardaway Jr. G (Out), Trey Burke G (Out).
Cavaliers: Rajon Rondo G (Questionable), Jarrett Allen C (Out), Evan Mobley F (Out), Dean Wade F (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in the Cavaliers' last eight games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Cavaliers.
Mavericks vs Cavaliers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Given the schedule spot, the Mavericks should be the team we look at as tired and beaten up. But Cleveland limps into this matchup with plenty of players fighting through injuries as well as some missing pieces to the Cavs’ postseason push.
The biggest cog absent on that wheel is 6-foot-11 forward Evan Mobley, who suffered an ankle injury in Monday’s win over Orlando. Mobley is expected to miss a few games, taking 15 points per game out of the Cavaliers offense but also, more importantly, removing the centerpiece of the league’s fourth-ranked defense (advanced defensive rating).
Dallas has benefited from some timely injuries to top defensive players in recent games, dodging LeBron James and Anthony Davis in last night’s win over the Lakers and beating Utah with Rudy Gobert sidelined Sunday. The Mavericks made the most of those advantages, scoring 114 and 128 points in those outings — a significant uptick from Dallas’ season average of just 107 points.
Mobley's loss could be crippling against an opponent that likes to attack the rim, as the USC product is an insurance policy in the paint — allowing the Cavaliers' perimeter defenders to play tight on-the-ball pressure, which is why Cleveland ranks fifth overall in effective field goal percentage allowed.
Dallas isn’t the most aggressive team when it comes to attacking. It sits second last in points in the paint and opts to run its offense through more spot-up and isolation sets outside the key — two play types the Cavs excel at defending. The Mavericks take 22% of their shots between eight and 24 feet and 43% of attempts from beyond the arc.
That said, without Mobley and center Jarrett Allen, who is sidelined with a finger injury, the Cavaliers get softer inside, plugging in Lauri Markkanen (who’s battling a sore knee) and veteran Kevin Love. Minus those rim protectors to bail them out, Cleveland’s perimeter defenders will either get burned off the dribble or have to sag off, allowing the Mavericks’ spot-up shooters room to operate.
This spread peaked at Dallas -4.5 but has since sunk to -2.5 this morning, which is below the original opener set last night. The market could be reacting to a potential rest spot for Luka Doncic, as NBA prop odds are also being held off the board for the Mavericks.
Should Luka play, Dallas is a bet-on team. He’s been on absolute fire the past two games, shooting 23 of 44 from the field and totaling 66 points. Should he not, well…
Prediction: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
As mentioned, Dallas has shown more pop over this late-season surge — thanks in part to some softer defenses (vs. Minnesota twice, Houston) or missing stoppers on the other side of the floor (L.A. and Utah) — and catches another break in Cleveland tonight.
Dallas has scored 110 points or more in each of those last four wins, which does its share of the heavy lifting when bookies peg the Mavs with sub-220 totals. Tonight’s total is especially short, ticking down from 214 to 213 points.
That number is warranted, considering Dallas is playing the second of back-to-back games, and both the Mavs and Cavs ranked out among the NBA’s defensive elite as well as two of its slower-paced offenses. These teams are also a combined 19-38-2 Over/Under (67%) when up against totals of 213 points or less.
Sooo, naturally, we're going the other way.
Again, Doncic's uncertain status combined with Dallas potentially missing other starters makes betting the total a pain in the ass. However, while the early absence of props and a half-point move down from Mavs -4.5 to -3 is alarming, the Over/Under has dipped just a point to 213. If Doncic is a go, so is the Over.
Prediction: Over 213 (-110)
Best bet
Should he play, Doncic will feast on a softer Cleveland interior, bullying his way into the paint, and the pick-and-roll could be especially effective tonight with the Cavaliers forced to counter with the less athletic bigs. On top of that, Cleveland has to deploy a smaller lineup with Mobley and Allen out.
The 6-foot-8 Kevin Love isn’t known for his defense but can still fill it up, scoring 19 points in 32 minutes Monday. He’s also a great facilitator with the basketball and a smaller quicker lineup would boost Cleveland's underrated transition attack.
The Cavaliers, who run the 25th slowest pace in the league, actually rank out as the fifth most efficient transition offense (scoring frequency of 52.4%) and post 1.16 points in those pace-pushing possessions. If the Mavericks are feeling the effects of two straight games, an up-tempo approach from Cleveland could amplify that fatigue.
Pick: Over 213 (-110)
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