Mavericks vs Celtics Picks and Predictions: Celtics Dismantle Visiting Mavs

A non-conference clash is headlined by two of the NBA’s brightest young superstars when the Boston Celtics welcome the Dallas Mavericks to TD Garden on Sunday afternoon.

Jayson Tatum has the Celtics rapidly climbing the East standings, with his frenzied scoring pass pushing Boston to five straight wins. Across the court, Luka Doncic is doing the same for Dallas – winner of six of its last seven outings. The NBA betting odds have installed Boston as a 5-point home favorite for this matinee matchup.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks at Celtics on March 13.

Mavericks vs Celtics odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Books opened Boston as a 5-point home chalk and that spread is up to -6.5 at some shops. The total hit the board at 217 points and has slimmed as much as 213.5 as of Sunday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs Celtics predictions

• Prediction: Celtics -6 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 214 (-110)
• Best bet: Celtics 4Q ML (-144)

Predictions made on 3/13/2022 at 9:54 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mavericks vs Celtics game info

• Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA
• Date: Sunday, March 13, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC/SN1

Mavericks vs Celtics betting preview

Key injuries

Mavericks: Jalen Brunson G (Questionable), Dorian Finney-Smith F (Questionable), Tim Hardaway G (Out), Marquese Chriss C (Out), Reggie Bullock G (Out), Theo Pinson G (Out).
Celtics: Aaron Nesmith G (Out).

Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 39-16 in Mavericks’ last 55 games as underdogs. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Celtics.

Mavericks vs Celtics picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Tatum is making a late push for NBA MVP with his efforts this month. The versatile forward is averaging almost 40 points over the past five outings and complements what has become the premier defense in the NBA.

Since the start of 2022, Boston has bought in to head coach Ime Udoka’s philosophies and has tightened up on the defensive end. Over the past month and a half, the Celtics own an advanced defensive rating of 104.1 and have checked opponents to just 102.3 points per game – both league lows.

The Mavericks’ recent run is impressive but has come against some less-than-stingy competition. They did earn a 111-103 win over Utah at home on March 7 but beyond that, haven’t faced much pushback. 

And thanks in part of a friendly stretch of schedule, which had the Mavs at home for four of those last seven games (as well as a trip to hapless Houston), Dallas has finished on the right side of the scoreboard most nights despite an average margin of just +1.7 in that span.

Dallas could be without two key pieces today, with guard Jalen Brunson and forward Dorian Finney-Smith listed as questionable. Brunson is a big part of this offense which has been extremely efficient since the trade deadline and Finney-Smith is the Mavs’ best matchup with Tatum on defense.

This contest could stay close throughout Sunday afternoon, however, Boston is able to find another gear in crunch time. The Celtics have outscored their last five foes 29.8 to 24.2 in the final frame – a +5.6 average margin.

The Mavericks enter this game as the lowest-scoring team in the NBA in the final frame (24.3) and have averaged only 18.3 4Q points over the past three games.

Prediction: Celtics -6 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Dallas enters as the most methodical offense in the NBA, owning a pace rating of 93.95 since February 1 which ties into the injury and subsequent trading of Kristaps Porzingis, who often was a square peg in a round hole for the team's offensive approach.

The Mavericks have been a much more efficient offense since that move and chew up plenty of shot clock in the halfcourt set, attempting more than 72% of their field goal attempts with 15 seconds or less on the clock and almost a quarter of those total shots with seven seconds or less.

Boston is just fine playing at that pace and does a good job throwing a wrench into pick-and-roll attacks, thanks to a versatile lineup that can switch off and heads-up help. The Mavs make their moves off pick-and-roll as well as off-the-ball cuts, another area the C's handle well. 

Boston is great at jumping the passing lanes, allowing a league-low assists per game while protecting against penetrating passes and holding foes to only 44.3 average points in the paint since February. Pushing opponents to the perimeter has also made it one of the best rebounding teams, ranked fifth in defensive boards. 

Prediction: Under 214 (-110)

Best bet

As mentioned, Boston has been a bully in final frames during this winning streak. The Celtics have closed out some stiff competition during that span, snuffing out late chargers from the likes of Memphis and Brooklyn.

Since February, they boast a net rating of 12.7 in fourth quarters with that spiking to 14.1 when playing at home, where they are 7-1 straight up in the past month and a half. 

The spread for this one is ticking upwards, which can get uncomfortable considering a guy like Luka Doncic can single-handedly keep the Mavs in the mix if he goes off. Boston’s full-game moneyline stretches to -250 range, which may be a little more than most basketball bettors would like to lay. 

However, operators do offer derivative moneylines for individual quarters pregame, and FanDuel books has the Celtics at -144 to win the fourth and final frame Sunday.

Pick: Celtics Fourth Quarter moneyline -144

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