Mavericks vs Jazz Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Not So Great Salt Lake

After missing two of the Dallas Mavericks' last five games, Luka Doncic returned with a vengeance in his last outing, and assuming he plays, Dallas is in a terrific position to beat up on the Utah Jazz's uninspiring defense.

Doncic has been dealing with quad soreness that caused him to miss three games in December and he’s listed as questionable for tonight’s matchup at the Delta Center. However, it sounds like he plans to start the new year on the court and help the Mavs climb the West standings. Despite the uncertainty, Dallas is a 3.5-point favorite in the NBA odds.

Find out where my best bets lie in our NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Jazz on Monday, January 1.

Mavericks vs Jazz odds

Mavericks vs Jazz predictions

Currently tied with the New Orleans Pelicans in the Southwest, the Dallas Mavericks could use a win against this shaky Utah Jazz team. With all signs pointing towards Luka Doncic playing, Dallas has the offensive firepower to not just beat the Jazz, but to beat them soundly.

This is a Jazz team that’s had its fair share of hiccups this season, sitting 12th in the West at 14-19. One of the biggest issues has been Utah's defense. It’s allowing 118.8 points per game, 23rd in the NBA, and second worst in the West behind just the San Antonio Spurs.

Teams are shooting 48.3% from the floor against Utah and 37.8% from behind the arc — both ranking in the bottom third of the league — and opponents are taking the fifth-most threes in the league against the Jazz (37.3 per game). 

Currently, the Jazz are 24th in the league in defensive rating (117.7) and giving up 51.9 points in the pain. This is a team whose defense can be stressed down low or from deep, and Doncic can do both.

Led by the four-time All-Star, Dallas is scoring 119.2 points per game. The addition of eight-time All-Star Kyrie Irving has played a large role in that, too, and while he’s also been banged up, he’s finally listed as questionable — as opposed to out — for the showdown in Utah.

The Mavericks sound optimistic that Irving, who hasn’t played since December 8, will be out there alongside Doncic. This season, the two of them are averaging a combined 56.9 points and 14.5 assists per game while leading an offense that’s taking the second most threes per game (42).

Doncic leads the way with 10.5 threes per game, but the Mavs have four players who attempt at least five per game and 11 who take at least two. Of those 11, seven are hitting at least 35.9% from distance.

Not only does Dallas have the shooting to give the Jazz’s poor arc protection trouble, but it’s also been one of the most efficient offenses. Jason Kidd’s squad doesn’t turn the ball over, averaging the fewest per game at just 11.4.

An offense that loves to shoot and doesn’t turn the ball over against a defense that struggles to defend from deep while its offense is turnover-happy? That should set the Mavericks up for plenty of points. 

Utah is not only tied with the Detroit Pistons for the most turnovers per game at 15.7 but the Jazz are tied with them for the most points off turnovers allowed per game at 20.1. A healthy Doncic and Irving will be able to run up the score.

There’s no reason to be worried about rust with Doncic either. After missing the Mavs' game against the Minnesota Timberwolves on December 28, he returned to drop 39 points and 10 assists in a win against the Golden State Warriors on December 30.

The last time these teams took the court, Dallas walked over Utah like it was nothing in a 147-97 win on December 6. Hardy didn’t hold back after that loss either.

“That was an absolutely horrendous performance from start to finish,” he said. “That was a masterpiece of dog (expletive). I really don't know how to describe that game. It seemed like the Mavericks were moving at a different pace than we were from start to finish.”

It tied for the second-worst loss in Jazz franchise history and the Mavs hit 22 of 49 threes in that game while led by Doncic and Irving. They combined for 66 points, 15 assists, and 13 rebounds while shooting 52.6% from deep.

My best bet: Mavericks -3.5 (-110 at bet365)

Mavericks vs Jazz same-game parlay

Mavericks -3.5

Over 245.5

+264 at bet365

A healthy Doncic tends to mean points and while Dallas is set up well to run away with this one, Utah should be able to light up the scoreboard enough to keep the Over in play.

The offense runs through Lauri Markkanen and the one-time All-Star is averaging 23.5 points and shooting 37.1% from three. He’s also got reinforcements in the form of Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton, who are averaging a combined 32.7 points per game.

The most helpful aspect of this matchup in terms of hitting the Over though is that Dallas struggles with defending power forwards like Markkanen. The Mavericks are giving up the second most points per game to power forwards this season (26.99).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Mavericks vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis

Even with the uncertainty around Doncic and Irving, the Mavericks have been favored by at least three and as much as 4.5 since lines became available. Most books have settled in with Dallas -3.5.

The Mavs have been one of the better teams against the spread this season, going 18-15, while the Jazz are even better at 18-14-1. The last time these two played, Dallas easily covered the -11.5-point spread.

Both teams can score and that’s why the total opened as high as 246.5. Still, it’s come down to 245.5 pretty much everywhere. Dallas is one of the best Over betting teams in the NBA at 20-12-1 and Utah isn’t far behind at 18-14-1.

Mavericks vs Jazz betting trend to know

The Mavericks have hit the game total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Jazz.

Mavericks vs Jazz game info

Mavericks vs Jazz latest injuries

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