Mavericks vs Knicks Picks and Predictions: Dallas Defense Dominates at MSG

The New York Knicks have won three out of four and will look to keep things rolling against the red-hot Dallas Mavericks tonight.

Dallas has been clamping teams down on defense, which has led to six straight wins, and the Mavericks are actually sitting as slight NBA betting road favorites at Madison Square Garden.

Here are our best free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Knicks on Wednesday, January 12.

Mavericks vs Knicks odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line opened between Dallas -1.5 and -2.5 at most sportsbooks, with the spread sitting anywhere from Mavs -2.5 to -3.5 as of early Wednesday morning. The total hit the board at 207 points and has been bet down to 205.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Mavericks vs Knicks predictions

• Prediction: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 205 (-110)
• Best bet: Knicks TT Under 102.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 1/12/2022 at 10:47 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mavericks vs Knicks game info

• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• Date: Wednesday, January 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Mavericks vs Knicks betting preview

Injuries

Mavericks: Kristaps Porzingis F (Out), Willie Cauley-Stein C (Out).
Knicks: Nerlens Noel C (GTD), Kemba Walker G (GTD), Derrick Rose G (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Knicks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Knicks.

Mavericks vs Knicks picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

One of the biggest recent revelations for Dallas has been its ability to shut down opposing teams, as the Mavs have held opponents to under 100 points in six of their last seven games (93.3 points per game average), and that includes facing Chicago, Golden State, and Sacramento (twice) — all of which are in the top-half of league scoring this season.

During this seven-game stretch, the Mavs are holding opponents to the fifth-lowest field goal percentage in the league and also grabbing almost 80% of available defensive rebounds — best in the NBA. Where they've really clamped down during this defensive renaissance is on 3-point shots, as the Mavs are giving up the third-fewest 3-point attempts and holding foes to under 30% shooting from deep (second in the league). That will come in handy against a Knicks team that is Top 10 in the league in both threes attempted and 3-point percentage this season.

After an ugly stretch in early December where they lost seven of eight, the Knicks have been marginally better with an 8-5 ledger over the past month.  But looking at those wins doesn't exactly inspire confidence: two against Detroit (second-worst team in NBA), one versus Houston (last in the West), defeating a Minnesota team without its three best players (and on a back-to-back), Atlanta without Trae Young, Indiana without six rotation players, San Antonio without six key players (and at the end of a dreadful road trip), and Boston in a massive comeback where Evan Fournier miraculously scored more points in one game than he has the rest of January combined.

New York is still generally seeing its starters get outplayed with the current starting five (Fournier, Alec Burks, R.J. Barrett, Julius Randle, and Mitchell Robinson) combining to have a negative average plus/minus during this 13-game mirage and the bench mob picking up the slack, sitting second in field goal percentage and third in plus/minus — and just 18th in minutes — per game during this span.

While the Knicks' reserves have been able to cover for the starters' shortcomings seemingly all year — their bench is eighth in points and second in plus/minus per game, compared to the starters ranking 27th in points and 26th in plus/minus per game — that won't fly against a Dallas team that is getting even more out of its role players during this winning streak.

The Mavs' bench has the third-highest plus/minus per game in the NBA during this stretch, continuing the dominant work of the Luka Doncic-led starting unit, which has been outscoring opponents by nearly 12 points per game.

With a massive edge in the starting five, a bench that (at the worst) will maintain the status quo, and a defense that is limiting threes, all signs point to Dallas winning its seventh straight game tonight — and covering as a road dog.  

Prediction: Mavericks -2.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

In addition to only giving up triple digits once in its past seven games, Dallas hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard itself, averaging just 106.6 ppg — with that number inflated by a 130-point outburst against the Rockets.

It comes as no surprise then that the Under has cashed in six of those seven games, with four of them falling short of tonight's 205 total.

The Knicks have also been a strong Under play, going 7-2 to the Under in their last nine and not giving up more than 105 points in eight of those games, while also averaging just 97.1 ppg and going Under 205 five times.

These teams play at the two slowest paces in the NBA this season (Dallas 29th, New York 30th) and it's been no different in 2022, with the Knicks still dead last and Dallas making great leaps up to the sixth-slowest.

With neither side particularly keen on running and gunning, and a 3-point barrage also not likely in the cards, we'll bank on a low-scoring affair tonight. 

Prediction: Under 205 (-110)

Best bet

We mentioned above how Dallas' recent ability to limit opponent 3-point shooting is going to really hurt the Knicks. Well, let's dive a little deeper into that, shall we?

Currently, 37.9% of all New York points come from 3-point shots, which is the fifth-most in the league. The 'Bockers have been slightly more varied as of late, with just 35.8% of points being off triples (12th in NBA) in January, but that has come at the expense of more mid-range shots, where the Knicks have gone from 6.5% of their points (25th in NBA) to a whopping 13.1% (third-most).

So, the Knicks have substituted 3-pointers for less valuable (and only slightly less difficult) shots. Not exactly an effective (or efficient) approach.

New York also does a poor job of moving the ball, with the league's third-lowest assist percentage on the season and second-lowest since 2022 began.

Considering the Knicks play at a snail's pace (and Dallas not much quicker), possessions will be limited for New York tonight. And with a chunk of the offense going to isolation plays leading to either threes or long twos — against a Mavs defense that has been making opponents struggle from the field — we don't see the home side cracking 100 tonight... let alone topping the team total.

Pick: Knicks team total Under 102.5 (-110)

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