Two teams with a tenuous grip on a postseason spot are set to meet at Crypto.com Arena on Friday night as the Dallas Mavericks visit the Los Angeles Lakers. Dallas is just 1-2 over its last three games with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving both sidelined due to injuries.
The Lakers also continue to be without LeBron James, who last played back on February 26, which is coincidentally the last time these teams met. Of those three superstars, Irving (questionable) is the only one who might take the floor tonight.
Find out your best betting options in our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs Lakers on March 17.
Mavericks vs Lakers best odds
Mavericks vs Lakers picks and predictions
If one were to blindly look at the head-to-head trends ahead of this matchup, the Mavericks would seem like an easy call catching 5.5 points, even on the road. They’re 6-1-1 against the spread in their last eight matchups against the Lakers.
However, due to injuries, the record book can be thrown out the window. The Mavs are a different team without Luka Doncic, and even if Kyrie Irving manages to take the floor tonight, he may not be at 100%. The Lakers may not have LeBron James to turn to, but Anthony Davis and D’Angelo Russell can carry this team to a win and cover tonight.
Davis sat out L.A.’s most recent game — a 114-110 loss to the Houston Rockets — drawing the ire of some NBA pundits. He’s managing a foot injury, but L.A.’s policy is to sit him in the latter half of back-to-backs. I wouldn’t expect Davis to be off his game tonight, and that spells trouble for Dallas.
The eight-time All-Star has scored 30 or more points in four of his last six contests and has also topped 15 rebounds in three of his last four overall. Tonight, Davis faces the worst team in the NBA by rebound differential (-5.1 per game).
Russell has also proven to be a great pickup for L.A. prior to the trade deadline. Not counting the start in which he left early against Golden State, the Ohio State product has averaged 21.1 points per game since joining the Lakers.
The Lakers have covered four of their last six overall, all by double-digit margins. Meanwhile, the Mavericks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 overall.
My best bet: Lakers -5.5 (-109 at BetRivers)
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Mavericks vs Lakers spread analysis
After suffering consecutive losses to Memphis, the Mavericks managed a 137-128 win over the hapless San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday.
While players like Jaden Hardy (20.8 ppg in March) and Josh Green (21.7 ppg in his last three games) are putting up nice numbers in Donic and Irving's absence, it's mostly because they’re seeing a significant increase in usage. As a team, Dallas has failed to register more than 108 points in three of its last four affairs.
The Mavs have been a lousy road team all year long, giving up an additional 2.2 ppg on defense compared to their overall figure while going 13-21 straight up and 14-20 ATS. They’re also 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games following an SU win and 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games against teams with losing records.
This 5-7 point range for the spread suits the Lakers just fine, as they’re 5-1 ATS as favorites this season.
Mavericks vs Lakers Over/Under analysis
The total looks like a tricky call to this handicapper, though the public seems to have its mind made up. The initial consensus total of 224 has skyrocketed to as high as 227 as of this writing, with 226.5 being the prevailing number across the board.
As I stated before, the Mavs’ offense is somewhat lost without Doncic, and playing on the road won’t help their cause. I expect the Lakers to dictate proceedings as home favorites, and the Under is 7-1 in their last eight games at Crypto.com Arena.
The Under is also 5-2 in the last seven meetings between the Mavericks and Lakers, and plenty of those matchups featured Doncic and LeBron James.
I would play the Under simply to bet against a number that feels too tall, especially if Irving remains on the sidelines.
Mavericks vs Lakers betting trend to know
The Lakers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Lakers.
Mavericks vs Lakers game info
| Location: | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, March 17, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSW, SPECSN |
