We’ve got an intriguing Western Conference matchup on our hands tonight as Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks head to the desert to take on Chris Paul and the Phoenix Suns.
Both teams head into this matchup dealing with injuries and identical 25-24 records. However, they seem to be trending in different directions. The Mavs have dropped five of their last six games, while the Suns enter this one as winners of four in a row.
That said, NBA odds are expecting a close matchup as the Suns are laying just a couple of points at home. Will these trends continue with the Suns winning their fifth straight game, or can Luka pull the Mavs out of their funk?
I break down this Western Conference showdown and bring you my best bet in our NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs. Suns on January 26.
Mavericks vs Suns best odds
Mavericks vs Suns picks and predictions
Even though Luka Doncic is doing his best to keep the ship afloat, things are not going very well for the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs have lost seven of their last nine games in a situation that feels like Luka is trying to do it all himself.
It’s not working... particularly on defense.
The Mavericks are 28th in defensive rating over this nine-game skid and are surrendering 120.3 points per game which ranks 25th in the NBA over that span. Now, they have to deal with a Phoenix Suns team that is starting to find a rhythm and is getting Deandre Ayton back tonight.
You can check out my NBA player props column to find out why I think Ayton will have a big game tonight. As for the Suns as a collective, they come into this one as the winner of four in a row, putting up 117.3 points per game. This is impressive when you consider they’ve been without the services of Devin Booker during this stretch.
Meanwhile, it feels like the Mavericks are trying to shoot themselves out of this slump. Over the last seven games, Dallas is putting up 117.4 points per contest.
Phoenix is a solid defending team ranking 11th in defensive rating. But the one place you can sometimes get to them is on the perimeter, where they rank 17th in opponent shooting percentage from beyond the arc. That should fare well for the Mavs, as they take the third most 3-pointers per game in the NBA.
With a modest total of 221.5, I’m betting this game lands Over the listed number.
My best bet: Over 221.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Mavericks vs Suns spread analysis
The spread for this matchup has seen little action to this point, as it’s still sitting at the opening number of Phoenix -1.5. In a game that oddsmakers are considering close to a tossup, I would be inclined to lean toward the slight home favorite, as the Suns are playing better basketball at the moment.
Phoenix has covered against the spread in all four games during this winning streak, which includes outright wins as sizeable underdogs against the Nets and Grizzlies. Phoenix has also been a solid bet at home this season, going 15-10 ATS.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks have clearly underperformed of late. They have only covered the spread twice over the last nine games, and that includes outright losses as home favorites against the Wizards, Clippers, and Hawks. The Mavs are also 7-16 ATS when playing on the road this season.
Mavericks vs Suns Over/Under analysis
The total for this Western Conference clash hit the board at 222 and has slightly dipped down to the current number of 221.5. But as I noted, this number looks low enough to attack the Over.
The Mavericks will continue to try and shoot themselves out of this slump against a Suns defense that can be exposed by the 3-ball at times. Plus, we all know Luka Doncic is capable of going off for a triple-double on any given night.
Mixing in the big dropoff in performance from the Mavs at the defensive end of the floor means even a Suns team missing its top scorer should be able to put up points in this one.
Mavericks vs Suns betting trend to know
The Over is 4-2 in the last six games for both Dallas and Phoenix. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Suns.
Mavericks vs Suns game info
| Location: | Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Thursday, January 26, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
TNT |
