Mavericks vs Suns Picks and Predictions: Fading Busy, Banged Up Luka in Season Opener

The Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns will meet in a rematch of one of last season’s most memorable playoff matchups when they collide at the Footprint Center on Wednesday evening to open their respective seasons.

The Mavericks beat the Suns in seven games in the Western Conference semifinals back in May. Dallas finished off Phoenix with a 33-point win on the road in Game 7.

The Suns will be out for revenge, while Luka Doncic will be aiming to start strong for the Mavericks in what could be an MVP season for the 23-year-old. We’ll break down what you should expect to see in this season opener in our NBA betting picks and predictions below.

Mavericks vs Suns best odds

Mavericks vs Suns picks and predictions

The world has been waiting for Luka Doncic to rise from a perennial All-Star to an MVP winner, and this might be the year he does it. The Slovenian averaged 28.4 points per game along with 9.1 rebounds and 8.7 assists per night in his fourth season, echoing the numbers he has put up consistently over the last three years.

Those numbers came despite a slow start for the Mavericks superstar. He averaged just 25.6 points per game over his first 21 appearances in the 2021-22 season. His shooting numbers were well under his season-long numbers over that period as well. He shot 32.6% from behind the arc in those games (compared to 35.3% for the season) and made just 69.8% of his free throws (down from 74.4% for the year). 

Doncic would later turn on the gas and overcome that slow start, leading the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals. He was dominant against the Suns in the playoffs, averaging 32.6 points per game against Phoenix.

The Mavericks aren’t concerned about Luka’s conditioning coming into this season, which has been a problem since previous summers. Instead, there are questions over whether Doncic played too much during the offseason.

Doncic spent much of the summer playing with the Slovenian national team in everything from World Cup qualifiers to EuroBasket in September, where he averaged 33.3 minutes over seven games for his country.

Doncic suffered some damage over that time, playing through pain in his right wrist and needing stitches after taking an elbow to his forehead. Neither is specifically a long-term concern, but the Mavericks may be rightfully worried about the health of their franchise player.

He played just 65 games last season after missing time due to ankle injuries and the NBA’s COVID-19 protocols. He also missed the first three games of the postseason after straining his left calf at the end of the season.

Dallas has eased Doncic back into the season, slowly ramping him up in their preseason workouts after his heavy workload this summer. He played in just two of Dallas’ three preseason games, and the team limited him in training camp.

While Doncic will put up MVP-quality numbers this season, he looks to be in line for yet another slow start. Sportsbooks are offering a wide range of points props on Doncic tonight, and with some giving a total as high as 29.5, there’s a lot of value on the Under.

Let’s fade Luka tonight before we watch him spend most of the year torching the NBA yet again.

My best bet: Luka Doncic Under 29.5 points (-105)

Mavericks vs Suns spread analysis

The Suns opened Wednesday’s game as a 5-point favorite, with most books now listing Phoenix as a 4.5-point pick over Dallas. 

The Suns won all three regular-season matchups between these two teams last year, with Phoenix taking each contest by seven or eight points. That dynamic shifted in their postseason series, where Dallas won a wild, seven-game series in which both sides posted blowout wins of 30 points or more.

Both teams are returning most of their key players from last season, with one notable exception. The Mavericks are without guard Jalen Brunson, who departed for the New York Knicks in the offseason. Brunson scored 16.3 points and 4.8 assists per game for Dallas last season. His departure likely means there will be even more pressure on Doncic to handle the ball, as newcomers JaVale McGee and Christian Wood won’t pick up all of Brunson’s slack. 

Phoenix will be missing forward Jae Crowder, as the Suns are currently looking to trade the veteran. Crowder averaged 9.4 points and 5.3 rebounds a night for the Suns but lost his starting spot to Cameron Johnson (12.5 ppg last season) before training camp. Phoenix will also be without guard Landry Shamet, who is dealing with a hip injury.

We can throw out the playoff results here, as trying to make any sense of that wild Western Conference semifinal will leave your head spinning. Instead, I’m favoring the Suns in this matchup for a couple of reasons. I’ve already talked about Luka’s slow starts, but there’s also the fact that Dallas is the team with more significant changes to its rotation, which may require an adjustment period for the Mavs.

With Phoenix at home and given their success against Dallas in the regular season last year, I’m laying the points with the Suns.

Mavericks vs Suns Over/Under analysis

At 216.5 points, the total on this matchup ranks among the lowest in the Wednesday NBA slate. That’s mostly due to Dallas’ style of play, which has been slow and deliberate in the regular season.

Last year, the Mavericks ranked dead last in the league in pace. Dallas averaged under 96 possessions per 48 minutes, nearly a full possession less than the second-slowest team in the league, the New York Knicks. While the Mavs scored well when they had the ball, they still ranked 24th in the league at 107.7 points per game.

That stands in stark contrast with the Suns, who ranked fifth in scoring at 113.8 points per game and eighth in pace. This clash of styles will continue in the 2022-23 season, with Phoenix trying to speed up the contest while Doncic controls the pace when Dallas has the ball.

You might think that such a dramatic difference in philosophies would lead to results that were all over the map, and you’d be right — at least in the postseason.

However, in three regular-season matchups last year, these two teams never combined for more than 216 points, with Phoenix going 3-0 in those matchups despite playing at a pace that seems ideal for Dallas. That history, combined with the changes in the backcourt for the Mavs, has me leaning toward the Under in tonight’s game.

Mavericks vs Suns betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings between the Mavericks and the Suns. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Suns.

Mavericks vs Suns game info

Mavericks vs Suns key injuries

Pages related to this topic