Want fun and fast NBA picks for Game 1 of the NBA’s Western Conference finals? Try “First Basket” betting when the Minnesota Timberwolves take on the Dallas Mavericks on May 22.
The popular NBA prop pick is simply that: betting on the player to score the first basket of the game. It’s an erratic market to handicap with a potential for higher payouts, so treat these bets as simply 10 to 20 seconds of entertainment.
That said, there are patterns and trends that could point to a potential first-basket scorer, and I have my eyes on KAT and Luka Doncic tonight.
Mavericks at Timberwolves first basket picks
Click on each name to jump to the full analysis
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Dallas Mavericks
First basket pick: Luka Doncic (+600 at FanDuel)
Let’s not get cute with this one. Luka Doncic is the stick that stirs the drink for the Dallas Mavericks and doesn’t wait long to get involved.
Funny enough, he’s only been Dallas’ first shot taker in four of the dozen playoff games but has scored the team’s first bucket in half of those contests.
On the season, Doncic attempted the Mavs opening shot less than 15% of the time but has scored Dallas’ opening basket at a near 16% clip. Dallas and Minnesota share a similar success rate on opening tips this season, with the Mavericks owning a slight edge at 44.7% vs. the Wolves at 44.1%.
Minnesota Timberwolves
First basket pick: Karl Anthony-Towns (+600 at BetMGM)
When looking into all things Minnesota Timberwolves, I consult with the “Factor”. The Doug Farmer “Factor”. Covers’ resident T-Wolves authority has been right alongside this team in the postseason, even heading to Denver for Game 7 and somehow coming home alive.
According to Doug, Karl-Anthony Towns could be the top option for Minnesota’s “first basket” prop in Game 1. Towns doesn’t carry the same defensive responsibilities as last series, and the team could look to get him going early on against a less-talented Dallas frontcourt.
For the season, Towns attempted the Timberwolves' first shot in just shy of 10% of all games and recorded the team’s opening bucket at an 11% clip, which is third behind Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley.
In the playoffs, KAT has attempted the team’s first shot three times and hit the opening bucket three times in 11 postseason outings. That’s a jump to 27% in the playoffs. Trust in Doug.
Mavericks at Timberwolves first basket odds
- Karl-Anthony Towns (+500)
- Anthony Edwards (+550)
- Luka Doncic (+600)
- Rudy Gobert (+650)
- Mike Conley (+800)
- Jaden McDaniels (+800)
- Kyrie Irving (+900)
- Daniel Gafford (+950)
- P.J. Washington (+1,000)
- Derrick Jones Jr. (+1,500)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
