Mavericks vs Timberwolves Picks and Predictions: Dallas' Road Woes Continue in Minnesota

The Minnesota Timberwolves will look to back up their best offensive performance in franchise history when they host the Dallas Mavericks on Monday night.

Dallas has lost four of its last six games and could be without superstar Luka Doncic, who missed the Mavericks’ 100-99 loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday with a quadriceps injury. 

Both teams sport 15-15 records and have been up and down throughout the season. However, the injury report gives one side a clear edge, whether or not Doncic suits up. We’ll break it all down in our NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks vs Timberwolves on December 19.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves best odds

Mavericks vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

On Sunday, the Timberwolves set a franchise record for points scored in a single game when they beat the Chicago Bulls 150-126 at home. The barrage was primarily led by their backcourt as D’Angelo Russell scored 28 points and Anthony Edwards poured in 37 to go along with 11 assists and seven rebounds.

It’s unlikely Minnesota can produce that kind of offense against Dallas, which plays at one of the slowest paces in the NBA, but the Timberwolves backcourt could be in a position to thrive against a banged-up Mavericks team missing several key players.

Luka Doncic is listed as questionable on the injury report, which means he could well be limited even if he does show up on the roster. Josh Green is out for Monday’s game, while Tim Hardaway Jr. is questionable with a non-COVID illness. Point guard Spencer Dinwiddie should play but is only probable with a knee injury.

This would be a difficult game for Dallas even with a healthy lineup. While Dallas has been the slightly better team when looking at point differential, the advantage there is slim, with the Mavs at +1.7 and Minnesota at -0.8. We’re still early enough in the season where that could be more an artifact of limited data than any real indication of where these teams stand. 

Throw in the fact that Minnesota is at home, and Dallas is just 3-10 on the road, and the recipe for a Timberwolves win was already there even before we take the injuries into consideration. When you consider the most recent injuries for the Mavericks — yes, the Timberwolves are without Karl-Anthony Towns, but that’s been a constant for the past three weeks — you can make a real case that Minnesota should expect to win this game.

That’s not how the sportsbooks see it, however. The consensus line has the Mavericks as a 3.5-point road favorite, and that’s after the public has bet the line down a bit early on Monday. 

I’m very comfortable taking the Timberwolves +3.5, but I think we can do even better. With Minnesota in a good position to pull off an upset, I’d rather get plus money on the Timberwolves to win outright. Let’s lock in a solid price on the home team in a game Minnesota must feel like it should win.

My best bet: Timberwolves moneyline (+140 at William Hill)

Mavericks vs Timberwolves spread analysis

Most sites opened Monday’s line at four points. Bettors have brought that down a bit, with the industry consensus now at Mavericks -3.5. 

Neither team has played well against the spread this year. Dallas is 10-18-2 ATS, while Minnesota is only slightly better at 12-18.

One thing to keep a close eye on in this game will be the pace of play. Dallas wins games by slowing things down in its halfcourt offense, particularly by letting Doncic patiently wait out opportunities to score. That will be hard to do against a Minnesota team that likes to run and shoots at 49.1%, the third-highest percentage in the league.

With so many guards either out or questionable for the Mavericks, the Timberwolves should get more open looks. It’s unlikely Dallas can keep up in a shootout, and without Doncic, it’s hard to see them being particularly efficient in their halfcourt offense, either.

As I talked about above, I think the Timberwolves moneyline is the way to go here. However, taking Minnesota +3.5 is also a solid bet, particularly if you want to be a bit more risk-averse. Even if Dallas does manage to find a way to win, it will likely be in a close, lower-scoring game where those 3.5 points should be enough for the Timberwolves to cover.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 227. The number has come up a bit on Monday, with the consensus Over/Under now sitting at 228.

As we’ve already broken down, these are two very different teams when it comes to scoring and pace. Dallas typically plays under that number, especially when they are successful. Meanwhile, the Timberwolves want to play to bigger totals whenever possible. Neither does so all that consistently, but the trends are there.

However, I am skeptical of the Mavericks’ ability to slow down the game if Doncic isn’t in the lineup. Yes, they’re coming off a game that went to 199 points in overtime, but that came against Cleveland, the only team in the league that plays slower than Dallas. The Wolves won’t allow that to happen if they can help it. 

That makes me want to slightly favor the Over here. However, I’ll be staying off the total tonight, as these teams have shown little to no consistency when it comes to dictating the pace. Slower teams have dragged the Timberwolves into low-scoring games and faster teams have forced the Mavericks to speed up. There’s too much uncertainty here to make a confident bet.

Mavericks vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Mavericks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Timberwolves.

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