The Dallas Mavericks ain’t going out like that. At least not on their home floor.
Dallas avoided a series sweep at the hands of the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference finals but now come back to the “City by the Bay” for Game 5 on Thursday night. Bookies have Golden State pegged as a 7-point NBA betting favorite to finish off the series in San Francisco despite that one-sided beating in Game 4.
Check out our free NBA picks and predictions for Mavericks at Warriors on May 26.
Mavericks vs Warriors Game 5 odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Golden State opened as low as -6.5 and jumped to -7.5 with some buyback on Dallas trimming that spread to Warriors -7 at some shops as of Wednesday afternoon. The total opened at 216 points and has slimmed a bit to 215.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mavericks vs Warriors Game 5 predictions
- Prediction: Mavericks +7.5 (-118)
- Prediction: Over 215.5 (-110)
- Best bet: Highest-Scoring Half - 2nd (+120)
Predictions made on 5/25/2022 at 3:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mavericks vs Warriors Game 5 info
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Thursday, May 26, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Mavericks vs Warriors series odds
Mavericks: +1,500
Warriors: -3,500
Mavericks vs Warriors Game 5 betting preview
Key injuries
Mavericks: Tim Hardaway Jr. G (Out).
Warriors: Otto Porter Jr. F (Questionable), Gary Payton Jr. G (Out), Andre Iguodala F (Questionable), James Wiseman C (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 14-6 in the last 20 meetings between the Mavericks and Warriors. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Warriors.
Mavericks vs Warriors Game 5 picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
You’ve got to give Dallas head coach Jason Kidd credit for sticking with his team’s 3-point happy system in Game 4, considering the Mavericks’ love for long-range looks did them in in the previous outing.
Dallas went 20-for-43 from distance on Tuesday — after making just 13 of 45 triples the game before. That helped build a 29-point cushion between the Mavericks and Warriors and essentially defaulted the Dubs into “don’t get hurt” mode in the second half. Golden State’s subs made a late push, which puckered the butts of Dallas bettors, but the game was never really in doubt.
While the Mavericks stuck with the all-or-nothing approach from beyond the arc, they did make some adjustments that proved profitable in Game 4. Kidd wasn’t going to go big — no matter how badly the Dubs pounded them on the glass — so he leaned on the man strength of Luka Doncic to play bigger, with the 23-year-old crashing the boards for 14 defensive rebounds.
Doncic also got back to trusting his teammates, dishing out a series-high nine assists to find open shooters, which made up for his shoddy shooting from outside (just 3-for-11 from deep). The Mavs' role players stepped up with five guys not named Luka scoring in double figures.
Minus the leaking roof, the effort was reminiscent of Dallas’ turnaround in the previous series. After dropping the opening two games to Phoenix, Doncic took on more of a distributor role and his teammates answered the call with a 180 in production.
The Mavs coasted on that momentum to a series win over the Suns and while I’m not sure there’s enough in the tank to turn this one around, I do expect Dallas to go down swinging — and not end up on the bad end of these playoff blowouts we’ve become accustomed to.
The Warriors are a great defensive team and have thrown a lot of challenges at Dallas in this series, mixing in man-to-man, zone looks, and box-and-one. However, many times, the Mavs have just flat-out missed open shots that were dropping in the previous rounds.
On top of those open looks dropping Tuesday, Dallas was more active without the ball and we saw cuts into space rather than just dribble-kicks and skip passes. The Mavericks recorded 30 assists on 41 made field goals (73% assist rate) compared to just 55% in the first three games of the West finals, taking a page out of the Warriors' playbook and making the Dubs really work on defense.
Prediction: Mavericks +7.5 (-118 at 888sport)
Over/Under analysis
A testament to the Warriors’ depth and scoring prowess is the 109 points posted in Game 4. Golden State matched its point total from Game 3 despite the starters sitting the bulk of the second half and shooting just 5-for-16 on 3-pointers as a unit. The bench gladly grabbed those garbage minutes and fired almost 53% from the floor while putting up 51 points in the loss.
Tuesday’s contest saw an uptick in pace rating at 97.5 compared to 96.67 in the three games prior, in part due to Dallas battling on the boards and limiting extra offensive possessions for the Warriors as well as generating more shots off assists rather than relying on creating mismatches off screens for isolation.
The Mavericks are steering into the skid in terms of their small-ball lineup, putting defense on the back burner while trying to out-shoot the Warriors, who have mainly settled for 2-point field goals rather than going tit-for-tat from beyond the arc. Dallas ran to space against the Dubs' zone sets in Game 4 and busted that defense from the inside out.
These teams pumped out 243 combined points in their last meeting inside the Chase Center, topping the closing total of 215.5 by 27.5 points in Game 2. With the Warriors' studs eager to erase Tuesday’s listless effort and the Mavs’ offense finding different ways to score, we like the Over in Game 5.
Prediction: Over 215.5 (-110 PointsBet)
Best bet
The second half of Game 4 might not have been that entertaining considering the Mavericks held a sizable lead before the Warriors roared back with a 39-point fourth quarter, but it did produce plenty of points for those banking on a high-scoring final 24 minutes.
Dallas and Golden State combined for 119 points in the second half versus 109 in the opening two quarters, which is a trend we’re seeing in this series. Outside of a 130-point explosion in the first half of Game 2, the second half has been the highest-scoring half in the other three games in this series.
These foes are averaging 112.6 2H points vs. 108.3 1H points while shooting a collective 51% from the floor in the final two quarters vs. just 44% in the opening half. Those scoring splits for the series are pretty much the same as the Mavs and Warriors output for the postseason so far: 107.5 1H PPG vs. 112.8 2H PPG.
Books have the second half priced at +120 to be the highest-scoring half in Game 5.
Pick: Highest-scoring half = second (+120 at bet365)
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