Mavericks vs Warriors Game 5 Player Props: Stars Shine in Dallas' Last Stand

The Dallas Mavericks staved off elimination in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals but now must face a refocused Golden State Warriors squad on Thursday, May 26.

Before what could be the end of Dallas’ Cinderella playoff run, we’re here to serve up the best NBA player prop picks for Game 5 of Mavericks vs. Warriors.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 5 prop picks

• Doncic Over 34.5 points
• Bullock Over 2.5 3-pointers made
• Curry Over 33.5 points and assists

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis. Each odds widget below represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated US sportsbooks.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 5 props

The Last Doncic

It’s a testament to Luka’s already impressive legacy that this line is so high, but even then, it’s still not quite high enough. Luka is averaging 36.6 points per game through the five elimination playoff games he’s played in his career so far, which incidentally is the highest such average in NBA history.

That number is actually dragged down by the Mavericks' victory in Game 4, where Doncic had a merely respectable 30 points. That’s because Luka had help from the Mavericks role players, as he typically does during Dallas home games. But when the lights get a bit brighter for his teammates, he’s inclined to shoulder even more than his usual gigantic usage to get the job done - and typically that’s resulted in a losing effort.

When nothing else worked against the Los Angeles Clippers in both of Doncic’s first two elimination playoff games, he popped off for over 40 points in both games, both losing efforts. 

So, this prop is about banking on Dallas’ team offense failing to again overwhelm a resharpened Warriors squad, and then counting on Luka going into do-it-himself mode as a result. In what has been an unpredictable playoffs in many ways, the surest bet has been for Luka to show up for the biggest moments.

PICK: Luka Doncic Over 34.5 points (-108)

Bullock's shooting travels

Because it came at the worst possible time and stuck out like a sore thumb on the box score, the casual fan might be under the impression that Reggie Bullock has not shot particularly well in this series. In reality, that 0-7 outing in Game 3 dropped Bullock to just over 40% from deep against the Warriors, as he’s been solid to scorching, home or road, outside of that one game. Bullock’s 3s made this series: Game 1: 3-10, Game 2: 6-10, Game 3: 0-7, and 6-10 in Game 4. 

There are a few critical aspects here. For one, Bullock is getting them up. He’s shooting 9.3 3s per game in this series, significantly above his regular-season average of 5.8. And unlike Kleber or Dorian Finney-Smith, Bullock has consistently found ways to get his 3-point shots off even during the games the Mavericks overall have struggled to find good looks. 

Secondly, Bullock shot just fine in both games in Golden State, so there’s no reason to expect that a return to San Francisco should dent his production. Indeed, the opposite is more likely true, as some of the other Dallas role players shrink from the moment, Bullock will be one of the few willing shooters Luka is comfortable kicking a pass to.

Having hit the Over on this number in three of the four games this series - and twice comfortably - this is a solid bet.

PICK: Reggie Bullock Over 2.5 3-pointers made (-149)

Steph infection

Outside of a weird “cold” streak from the free-throw line, Steph Curry has been nothing short of outstanding in the 2022 playoffs. While Curry has been his typical flamethrower from outside against Dallas (47.1% on 8.5 attempts per game), it has been his ability to penetrate and create from inside the paint that has really flummoxed Dallas. His 125.4 points per 100 possessions is almost three points higher than his regular-season mark, meaning he’s been even better against the best defenses in the NBA, even after they have had significant time to game plan for him. 

His turnover rate — both he and the Warriors' Achilles Heel — is also down over his regular-season mark, to 10.7% — which is 77th percentile among point guards per Cleaning the Glass. Not incredible to be sure, but far from a significant weakness either. The Mavericks are also one of the worst teams in terms of deflections, averaging just 10.9 per game, which would rank 13th out of the 16 playoff teams. That, in turn, means that the passing lanes, just like the paint, are relatively open for Steph to score and create for others.

Curry is averaging 26.0 points and 7.0 assists in these Conference Finals, and it’s pretty clear at this point that the Mavericks have nothing else new to throw at him. 

PICK: Stephen Curry Over 33.5 points and assists (-115)

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