Two teams headed in different directions face off Tuesday night as the floundering Golden State Warriors host the red-hot Dallas Mavericks in prime-time NBA action.
Dallas has won eight of its last 10 games, while Golden State has looked rudderless without Draymond Green at just 5-5 in its past 10.
The Dubs are still favored — should they be? Find out with our Mavericks vs. Warriors NBA picks and predictions for January 25.
Mavericks vs Warriors odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Warriors opened as -4.5 to -3.5 favorites and currently sit either at -3 or -3.5 as of Tuesday morning. The total was set at 211.5 and has been bet down to 210.5
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Mavericks vs Warriors predictions
Predictions made on 1/25/2022 at 8:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Mavericks vs Warriors game info
• Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Tuesday, January 25, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Mavericks vs Warriors betting preview
Injuries
Mavericks: Sterling Brown SF (Out).
Warriors: Draymond Green PF (Out), James Wiseman C (Out), Andre Iguodala SF (Out), Klay Thompson SG (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Dallas is 13-1 to the Under in its last 14 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Warriors.
Mavericks vs Warriors picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
This game should be all about defense, pitting two of the NBA's most capable teams against each other.
Golden State's defensive rating of 102.6 leads the NBA over the full season. Obviously, it's without Defensive Player of the Year front-runner Draymond Green, but even in the ten games since he last played, the Warriors' rating has only slipped to 103.9, good for second overall.
The only team ahead of the Warriors in that span is Dallas, who has held that league-leading clip over the past 15 games (100.8). Draymond's last game just happened to be against the Mavs, and even that didn't stop them from soundly beating GSW 99-82.
Dallas is keyed in on defense right now — give Jason Kidd and his staff credit where it's due, it's not like their rotation's chocked with elite defenders — and Jalen Brunson's addition to the starting lineup has given it a more dynamic approach than four guys standing watching around Luka Doncic do Luka Doncic shit.
While Doncic's efficiency has waned this season, he's in nowhere near the tailspin that Stephen Curry's currently mired in: averaging a pedestrian 20.8 points on 36% shooting in January — his worst month in recent memory. With Green absent and Curry having an Owen Wilson in Wedding Crashers' Third Act-type slump, the Warriors are the NBA's 25th-rated offense over the past ten games.
It's just really tough to favor that current form against a defense as red-hot as Dallas'. Curry can snap out of it at a moment's notice, but he's had a month to do so, and the Mavs aren't going to make life easy on him.
It's too much credit to have the Warriors spot points after they needed a second-half comeback to barely put away the Rockets a few days ago. Give us the Mavs spread.
Prediction: Mavericks +3.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
As we explored above, the Warriors are still a pretty damn good defensive team, and just look horribly broken on offense. That, as a baseline, sets us up in theory for an Under, given that Golden State's usually the type of two-way team that can compete in a variety of game scripts.
Dallas, for its part, has gone a step further, wrestling all life out of scoreboards in January. The Mavs are an absurd 13-1 to the Under in their past 14 games and are 6-0-1 against this total over their past seven.
The glacial rate Dallas plays at helps to keep scores frozen, plodding at the league's second-slowest pace over the course of the season. Golden State, formerly one of the league's faster teams, has been fringing on a bottom-third pace in January, and shouldn't be counted on to rush possessions given what their offense looks like.
And, as bad as that offense has been, it would be fairly stupid of Dallas to try and goad Curry into a shootout. Count on both teams to stick to the script and play defense-first at a snail's pace, making this an Under even against what's comfortably the lowest total on tonight's slate.
Prediction: Under 210.5 (-110)
Best bet
We think Dallas is the better team heading into tonight, so if they're getting +130 on the moneyline, it seems to logically follow that we should take that bet.
The Warriors just look way too shaken right now, and their frail offense plays right into the Mavs' hands.
Green's out. Curry's slumping about as hard as he has in their dynasty era. Klay Thompson's still knocking off the rust and might not even play tonight. Jordan Poole's been brutally inconsistent this month.
Asking a team that's oscillating this much to suddenly turn it on against what's currently the NBA's best defense seems like a tall task. Dallas should be able to clamp down enough to outscore whatever Golden State can muster.
Pick: Mavericks ML (+130)
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