Nets vs Heat Picks and Predictions: Pressure Around Brooklyn Gets Hotter

The Miami Heat continued to highlight their NBA contender bona fides while fellow contenders in the Eastern Conference turned upside down this week, as Miami navigated a far-stretching six-game road trip to the tune of a 4-2 record. Miami's a game-and-a-half up on the pack in the East, with its collective eyes set firmly on the postseason.

That Heat culture gaze may just find the Brooklyn Nets come springtime, as the play-in appears more and more likely for Brooklyn, losers of 10 in a row, and the NBA betting underdog tonight in South Beach.

The James Harden saga may have come to a close but the Nets' woes remain wide open, with our NBA picks and predictions fully expecting Miami to expose them in that Florida sunshine. 

Nets vs Heat odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Miami opened as 10- or 10.5-point favorites, depending on the book, while the total opened at 219.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Nets vs Heat predictions

• Prediction: Heat -10 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 219.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Irving Over 36.5 pts + asts + rebs (-105)

Predictions made on 2/11/2022 at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Nets vs Heat game info

• Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
• Date: Saturday, February 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSSUN, YES

Nets vs Heat betting preview

Key injuries

Nets: Kevin Durant SF (Out), Ben Simmons PF (Out), Seth Curry SG (Questionable), Andre Drummond C (Questionable), Nic Claxton C (Out), LaMarcus Aldridge C (Out), Joe Harris SG (Out).
Heat: Tyler Herro SG (Questionable), PJ Tucker PF (Questionable), Caleb Martin SF (Questionable), Victor Oladipo SG (Out), Markief Morris PF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Nets are 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Heat.

Nets vs Heat picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

With a combination of veteran play and postseason experience, the Miami Heat have unsurprisingly emerged as one of the league's most reliable teams. That's evidenced by their 36-20 record, despite all major contributors missing considerable time, and it's evidenced by their 33-23 ATS mark. Miami just isn't a team to let games slip unnecessarily and oh, oh goodness, would this be one unnecessary slip. 

That's because Saturday's opponents make the term "free fall" sound like a comfy, king-size mattress. The Brooklyn Nets have come undone and the pieces spread across galaxies of our own and those not yet found. They are, in this present moment, trash. Even putting aside James Harden's exit and Kyrie Irving's vaccine stance, it isn't entirely surprising — Kevin Durant is a Top 2 basketball player alive and he's injured. That's going to have some negative ripple effects. 

Yet, the degree to which Brooklyn's crumbled is fairly stunning. After a one-point loss to the skeleton of the Wizards on Thursday, the Nets have lost 10 in a row. Since Durant's injury against the Pelicans, Brooklyn is 28th in the NBA in net rating, level with the Kings and ahead of just the Pistons and Rockets. The Nets' offense remains respectable, especially when Irving is available, but the defense has caved. Absent any playable bigs (though Andre Drummond's arrival will at least give them some half-decent regular season minutes) Brooklyn is 29th in defensive rating across a 2-11 stretch. 

Until at least Durant returns, there's no way to frame the Nets other than being downright bad. The Heat are fourth in net rating and in the Top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating, all hallmarks of genuine NBA contenders. It would be difficult to fade Miami in a matchup like this against our typical idea of NBA basement dwellers and while Durant will eventually return to lift it toward contention, Brooklyn currently exists among those basement dwellers.   

Prediction: Heat -10 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Despite the Heat's reputation as a gritty, hard-nosed defensive team, the Over has become a fairly reliable bet when Miami's playing in its home confines. It has cashed in all four of Miami's last four home games and in 14 of 24 games on homecourt this season. Those long South Beach nights the opposition enjoys on the eve of a clash with the Heat regularly lead to tired legs and mental lapses on defense, and Miami capitalizes.

Despite Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo all missing double-digit games this year, the Heat are currently seventh in offensive rating, adjusted for opponent, and sixth in effective field goal percentage despite Adebayo's limitations and Butler's regression into a non-shooter from distance. In an enigmatic Eastern Conference, Miami is a reliable presence and one we do not need to worry about when backing the Over.

Speaking of Eastern Conference enigmas, the Brooklyn Nets. Despite Durant's injury, Harden's pre-trade "injury", Irving's part-time status, and the toxicity around Brooklyn since the turn of the new year, its offense has remained relatively decent. The Nets are 18th in offensive rating, just behind the Heat, in the 13 games since Durant went down with this most recent injury. Remove the home games, in which their own player in Irving can't play, and they are ninth in offensive rating.

Brooklyn has a host of problems to face, both in the short and long term. Offensive production isn't particularly pressing among those. Add in a consistent Heat offense and an even more consistent South Beach factor, and we've got an Over.

Prediction: Over 219.5 (-110)

Best bet

Say what you will about Irving, but you can't say he's not doing everything in his power to help his team wi — no, wait, let me rephrase that. Without Durant in the lineup this season, Irving's done everything he can to help this Nets team. 

In 10 games without Durant alongside him, Irving is averaging 25.6 points, 4.7 boards, and 5.9 assists per game, and is fresh off a one-point loss to the Wizards in which he posted 31/5/6. His responsibility as both an initiator and scorer will be even greater in the coming weeks, as Brooklyn navigates life without Durant or Ben Simmons, who begins to gear up toward a season debut. 

It'll be a tough night in Miami for the Nets, but with nobody else to help ease the burden, Irving should fill up the stat sheet. 

Pick: Kyrie Irving Over 36.5 points + assists + rebounds (-105)

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