Nets vs Mavericks Picks and Predictions: Doncic Cooks Brooklyn Once Again

The Dallas Mavericks will try to extend their winning streak to four games as they host the resurgent Brooklyn Nets on Monday night.

Brooklyn has won its last two games under interim coach Jacque Vaughn, who recently took over for Steve Nash. Meanwhile, the Mav are now 5-3 on the year, with superstar Luka Doncic averaging 36 points per game.

Dallas won the first meeting between these teams in Brooklyn last month with Doncic taking center stage. We’ll break down his NBA player props and see what he might do in Monday’s rematch in our NBA betting picks and predictions for Nets vs. Mavericks on November 7.

Nets vs Mavericks best odds

Nets vs Mavericks picks and predictions

Every NBA fan knows that Luka Doncic is one of the most talented players in the world. At just 23 years of age, he has become one of the league’s most recognizable stars, a triple-double machine, and a leading MVP betting candidate. 

I’ve already made the mistake this season of assuming Doncic would get off to another slow start like he has in previous years. I couldn’t have been more wrong, as the Slovenian has averaged 36 points, 8.8 rebounds, and 8.6 assists over his first eight games — taking his scoring to new heights while still contributing to the offense in other ways. 

Luka has fueled his barrage by shooting better than he has at any point in his young career, at least inside the arc. Doncic is shooting 52.7% from the floor and 78.5% from the free-throw line — both numbers that would be the best of his career if he comes close to maintaining them. That’s despite the fact that he is shooting just 26.2% from 3-point range, a number that should come up somewhat as the season progresses. 

One of Doncic’s best performances so far this year came against the Nets on October 27. He scored 41 points while dishing out 14 assists and grabbing 11 rebounds to lead the Mavericks in all three categories, as Dallas beat the Nets 129-125 in overtime. 

If the Nets plan to slow down Doncic in Monday’s rematch, it’s unclear exactly how they’ll do so. Brooklyn will likely be without elite perimeter defender Ben Simmons, who has been sitting with soreness in his left knee. In addition, Kyrie Irving will sit as a part of his suspension after failing to denounce antisemitism while talking to reporters on Thursday. 

Brooklyn has proven that it can play without Irving and Simmons, beating the Charlotte Hornets and the Washington Wizards without either of its guards. However, it’s hard to imagine that its plan for handling the Mavericks on Monday will revolve around shutting down Doncic.

That makes me think that Luka’s usage might be even higher than usual tonight, and has me looking at his points props. There’s no doubt that the number is high, with most sportsbooks setting the Over/Under on Doncic at 33.5 points. 

Yet I still think Luka hits the Over tonight, both because of how the Mavericks have utilized him this year and the fact that the Nets won’t be in a position to try and slow him down like they might with their starting backcourt on the floor. I’m taking the Over and banking on Doncic to dominate the game tonight against Brooklyn.

My best bet: Luka Doncic Over 33.5 points (-110)

Nets vs Mavericks spread analysis

Dallas opened tonight’s game as a 7-point favorite, but the consensus line has come down over the course of the day. While there’s some variation out there, Mavericks -6 is the most common line on the market as of noon.

That might seem like a fairly tight line considering the players missing from the Nets lineup. However, Brooklyn has played well without both Simmons and Irving. While it’s too early to say it will last, it’s easy to attribute the improvement to the work of interim coach Jacque Vaughn, who seems to have given his team a spark since replacing Steve Nash if nothing else.

While the Mavericks did win the first meeting between these two, the game went to overtime. I’m expecting a similarly close game in Dallas, which is one of the reasons why I like the Doncic points prop as well. The longer this game stays close, the longer Luka stays in the game, and the more points he can pour in.

The last four meetings between these two teams were decided by four points or less. With Kevin Durant playing well and the Mavericks failing to show consistent dominance of opponents early in the year, I see no reason why this one shouldn’t come down to the wire yet again. I’m backing the Nets +6 tonight.

Nets vs Mavericks Over/Under analysis

After opening at 213, sportsbooks have been pushing the Over/Under on this game higher, with the total now sitting at 216.5 nearly across the board. 

While these two teams rank as middle-of-the-pack in terms of points per game, they both shoot extremely well. Dallas is second in field-goal percentage at 48.3%, while Brooklyn ranks fifth (47.9%). There are also prolific scorers on both sides, with Doncic and Durant each capable of putting up 40+ points on any given night.

The Nets have been playing to the Under lately, going below the number in each of their last four games. Each of their last three games with Vaughn at the helm went below 215 points, suggesting that they may be taking defense more seriously under their interim coach. The Mavs have been dancing around that number a bit more, and have hit the Over six times in their last seven games.

With factors pointing in both directions, I’m going to lay off the total tonight. If you made me pick it, I’d go with the Over, but it’s worth noting that the 129-125 score from the first meeting between these teams is a bit misleading. That game went to overtime, and in regulation, the teams combined for a more reasonable 224 points.

Nets vs Mavericks betting trend to know

Luka Doncic has scored 35 points or more in five of his eight games this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Nets vs. Mavericks.

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