Nuggets vs Cavaliers Picks and Predictions: Cleveland Towers Contain the MVP

Two of the top teams in the NBA will make their returns from the All-Star break when the Denver Nuggets visit the Cleveland Cavaliers on Thursday night.

Cleveland (38-23) had won seven in a row before dropping a game to the 76ers last Wednesday. Denver (41-18) has won seven of nine and holds the top seed in the Western Conference.

The Nuggets may have the better record, but the Cavaliers are tough at home and have a formula that should contain Denver’s stars. We’ll talk about how this one will play out in our NBA picks and predictions for the Nuggets vs. Cavaliers on February 23.

Nuggets vs Cavaliers best odds

Nuggets vs Cavaliers picks and predictions

When these two teams last met on January 6, the Nuggets walked away with a 121-108 home victory. There are lots of reasons to think that tonight’s game will play out very differently, though.

Most obviously, the Cavaliers were without Donovan Mitchell in that loss. Mitchell is averaging 27.3 points per game in his first season with Cleveland, and the Cavs struggle a bit on offense when he’s out of the lineup. There’s no replacing him, especially when you consider he also contributes 4.9 assists per night.

Mitchell and fellow guard Darius Garland (21.7 ppg) present a formidable backcourt challenge for any opponent. The Nuggets may have particular issues guarding them tonight, as Denver point guard Jamal Murray is making his first appearance off of a knee injury. He’ll have his hands full with a tough first assignment tonight.

Obviously, Denver has plenty of star power for the Cavaliers to deal with as well. That starts with center Nikola Jokic, who is in contention for his third straight MVP award. 

Jokic is averaging 24.7 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 10.1 assists per night. He also torched Cleveland in the first matchup between these teams, putting up a triple-double with 28 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists.

While that one performance is encouraging for Denver, Cleveland looks like the type of team that could give Jokic at least a little trouble. Saying Jokic has struggled against teams with size and physicality on the inside would be a huge overstatement, but those are the teams that have done the best job at containing him. Between Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, the Cavaliers might at least be able to slow down the Serbian juggernaut. 

The change in venue is also significant. Most teams in the NBA play far better at home, but both of these teams are on the extreme end of that trend. While the Cavaliers are a sub-.500 team away from their building, they have gone 25-6 at home. Meanwhile, Denver owns the league’s best home record at 27-4 but has gone just 14-14 on the road. 

Outside of reputation, it’s not clear that Denver should be favored even on a neutral court. Cleveland has a better point differential on the season (+5.7 vs. +4.4), as well as a better Pythagorean expected record (43-18 vs. 38-21). 

In other words, it’s not a surprise that the Cavaliers are favored at home. When you consider that they are healthy again and have some nice matchup advantages tonight, it’s fair to question why they aren’t favored by even more. 

I’m in on Cleveland laying just 2.5 points in a game the home team should win.

My best bet: Cavaliers -2.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

Nuggets vs Cavaliers spread analysis

The Cavaliers opened tonight’s game as a 2.5-point favorite. That’s more or less remained steady, though some books have moved to Cleveland -2 as their main spread.

Both teams have been fairly good against the spread. Denver is 33-26 ATS on the year, while Cleveland is 32-26-3 against the number. Just like their straight-up numbers, however, both teams have played far better at home. The Cavs are 20-10-1 ATS in their building, while the Nuggets are just 12-16 ATS on the road.

While the ATS numbers are interesting, I think the raw difference in how these teams play at home and on the road might be the biggest factor tonight. Cleveland outscores teams by 8.8 points on average at home, compared to just 2.4 points on the road. The Nuggets have an even more dramatic road split, with opponents actually outscoring them by four points per game.

As I broke down above, I’m not sure you can say Denver is the better team even in a vacuum on a neutral site. With Cleveland at home against a team that has struggled mightily away from home, I think there’s no question that laying the points with the Cavaliers is the smartest play to make tonight.

Nuggets vs Cavaliers Over/Under analysis

Tonight’s total opened at 222 points. Bettors have pushed that number upwards just slightly, with the consensus Over/Under now standing at 222.5.

Based on what we’ve seen from these teams, that’s a reasonable number. There’s a bit of a stylistic contrast tonight, with Denver playing more offensively while Cleveland trends to slightly lower-scoring games. 

The Cavaliers play at the slowest pace in the league. However, Cleveland also boasts one of the most efficient defenses in the NBA, giving up an average of just 1.065 points per possession. That’s the second-lowest number in the league, and we can expect the Cavs to perform even better at home.

Denver actually plays reasonably well on the defensive end too, and while the Nuggets are a very efficient offensive team, they don’t actually push the pace. So while these teams hit the Over in their first meeting, it’s reasonable to expect a more defensive-minded battle on Thursday night. 

Putting that all together, I think the smart play here is to take the Under. If Cleveland controls the pace and both teams play to their typical defensive ability, it might be difficult for either team to get to 110 points, let alone beat the total tonight.

Nuggets vs Cavaliers betting trend to know

The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Cavaliers.

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