Nuggets vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: Lakers Can Dominate Down Low

The Denver Nuggets (17-10) have bounced back from a three-game losing streak, stringing together three straight wins in the last week. That includes a monstrous 141-point effort Wednesday night, with Nikola Jokic dropping 43 points on 17-of-20 shooting while adding 14 rebounds, eight assists, and five steals.

They will hit the road to take on the Los Angeles Lakers (11-16), who have dropped four of their last five and are in desperate need of a win. This is the second game of a short three-game home stretch, coming directly after a six-game road trip.

Can LeBron James and the Lakers get a much-needed win on their home court, or will MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic put together another MVP performance on Friday night?

Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for the Nuggets vs. Lakers on December 16.

Nuggets vs Lakers best odds

Nuggets vs Lakers picks and predictions

For what it's worth, this Los Angeles Lakers season has certainly already delivered in terms of drama and entertainment value. After starting 2-10, many were ready to call the season, and playoff hopes were essentially zero. Then, after winning eight of 10 to get to 10-12, many laughed at those prior doubts and fully bought in.

And now, after losing four of the last five, the script has flipped once again. Three of those losses were double-digit losses to the likes of the Cavaliers, Raptors, and Sixers — the exact caliber of teams the Lakers would need to be competitive with if they insist on being a serious playoff threat.

Their latest loss was a 122-118 overtime thriller against the Celtics. Anthony Davis and LeBron James led the charge with a combined 70 points, but the rest of the team managed to shoot just 38.6% from the floor. The Lakers also shot 8-of-29 from beyond the arc, and it was a miracle the Lakers were even in the game, given the Celtics hit at a 39.6% clip from 3-point range.

To the Lakers' credit, those are two areas where they can make changes quickly for Friday's game against the Denver Nuggets. They've allowed teams to shoot just 34.3% from deep this season, good for the seventh-lowest mark in the NBA. Denver allows a 37.0% percentage, which is the sixth-worst mark.

The Lakers also love to push the pace, trailing only the Warriors in that regard. They score 14.7% of their points on the fast break, and the Nuggets rank below average in terms of points allowed in that split. The Lakers also score 49.6% of their points in the paint, which is the second-highest rate in the league. Nikola Jokic may have his hands full tonight when it comes to staying busy on defense.

That was the case in their last matchup on October 30th, when the Lakers took home a 121-110 win. Jokic had a below-average shooting night for his standards (8-of-16) and certainly didn't have the legs to be effective from deep (1-of-5). Los Angeles also had a sizable advantage at the glass, with a 52.3% rebounding rate to Denver's 47.7%. That gap may not seem like much at first, but in a high-tempo game, the possessions add up quickly.

The structure of that matchup even plays well to Russell Westbrook's strengths, as he chipped in 18 points while adding eight assists and eight rebounds in Los Angeles' latest game against Denver. Any matchup where Westbrook can be better than a net negative is usually one that gives Anthony Davis and Lebron James more space to breathe and do what they do best.

My best bet: Lakers +1.5 (-107 at PointsBet)

Nuggets vs Lakers spread analysis

The Lakers opened as a one-point underdog and have moved to +1.5 across most books.

Although Lebron and AD are expected to play, they are officially listed as day-to-day, and their status is always one that can change the outlook of the game on a dime.

The Lakers are 11-16 against the spread this year, the sixth-worst mark in the league. They're 6-13 ATS as underdogs, the second-worst mark in the league, but are 3-4 as home underdogs. They have covered just once in the last five games, matching their straight up record.

The Nuggets are 12-15 ATS this year, the eighth-worst mark in the NBA. As a favorite, they are more even at 10-12, but as road chalk, they are 4-7. Denver has covered in three straight and in seven of its last 10.

Nuggets vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 237 and has since moved to 237.5 at most shops. The total is the second-highest on the night and comes after a 231 output in their last matchup, which had a closing total of 228.5.

Los Angeles has gone 16-11 to the Over, the third-highest Over rate in the league. It's also cashed the Over the total in four straight and in seven of their last eight.

Denver has gone a more even 14-13 to the Over but is 10-6 that way on the road. The Nuggets have gone Over in three of their last four and six of their last 10.

On top of the aforementioned pace advantage the Lakers have on offense, the Nuggets also like to push the ball as well. They rank just 20th in pace overall but are seventh in the percentage of points coming from fast breaks (13.7%). The Over may be the side to favor in tonight's matchup as a result.

Nuggets vs Lakers betting trend to know

Los Angeles has gone over the total in seven of its last eight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers.

Nuggets vs Lakers game info

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