Nuggets vs Pacers Picks and Predictions: Jokic Continues MVP Bid

The Denver Nuggets (45-31, 6th in the West) are now tied with the Utah Jazz for the Northwest Division lead and are looking to take home the banner down this final stretch of games, while more importantly trying to stay ahead of the Timberwolves and out of the Western Conference play-in tournament.

They will face off against the Indiana Pacers (25-51, 13th in the East) on Wednesday night, who hit the reset button at the trade deadline and have not been shy as of late about their intent to improve their draft lottery chances.

Can the Nuggets take advantage of a checked-out Pacers team or will Indiana keep it competitive enough to play within the modestly large spread?

Continue reading for our free NBA picks and predictions for the Nuggets vs Pacers matchup on Wednesday, March 30th.

Nuggets vs Pacers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Nuggets opened as 9.5 point road favorites and after some small movements in both directions, the spread has returned to that number. The total opened at a lofty 232 and has since climbed even higher to 235.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Nuggets vs Pacers predictions

• Prediction: Nuggets -9.5 (-106)
• Prediction: Over 235 (-107)
• Best bet: Jokic Over 13.5 rebounds (+104)

Predictions made on 3/30/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Nuggets vs Pacers game info

• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Wednesday, March 30, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Indiana, Altitude

Nuggets vs Pacers betting preview

Key injuries

Nuggets: JaMychal Green F (Questionable), Michael Porter Jr. F (Out), Zeke Nnaji F (Out).
Pacers: Myles Turner C (Out), Malcolm Brogdon G (Out), Chris Duarte G (Out), Goga Bitadze C (Questionable), Isaiah Jackson F (Out), Duane Washington G (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

On one day of rest this season, Indiana is 29-20 to the Over and Denver is 27-19-2 to the Over. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Pacers.

Nuggets vs Pacers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Nikola Jokic's case to win his second consecutive MVP award is growing by the minute. In a poll conducted by ESPN published on Tuesday, Jokic was voted by 100 media members as the MVP, with Denver's big man accruing 62 first-place votes to Joel Embiid's 29. 

After the Jazz's loss last night, the Nuggets find themselves tied for first in the Northwest Division and can pull ahead with a win tonight. More importantly is that Jokic and the Nuggets avoid slipping to the seven seed and an appearance in the play-in tournament, which could bounce Denver out of the playoffs with two quick losses.

Only one player in NBA history has won MVP despite missing the playoffs (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1976), and in more recent history the track record of winning MVP while on a lower-seeded team is not great either with Russell Westbrook and his sixth-seeded Thunder being the lone exception.

Tonight is as good as any night for Jokic to show out, with the Pacers not being trigger-shy whatsoever when it comes to putting their players on the injury report. That includes a frontcourt that will be without Myles Turner (who has been shut down for the season), Isaiah Jackson, and potentially Goga Bitazde and Oshae Brissett, both of whom are listed day-to-day.

But it may not have mattered if Indiana was healthy or not given how well the Nuggets have sustained elevated play for three months now.

Denver has been a bit more daring on offense during that time, both by pushing its pace and making riskier passes through tighter windows.

This is evident in their jump in the percentage of points coming from fast breaks (14th prior to Christmas to 10th after) and in the paint (15th vs. 10th). This change obviously leads to more turnovers as well, with the Nuggets possessing the second-worst turnover rate in the league since Christmas.

Denver has seemingly been prepared for that change however as it's been making an effort to get back on defense off of turnovers, allowing the same amount of points on fast breaks (12.6 per game) during both periods.

Prediction: Nuggets -9.5 (-106 at Pinnacle)

Over/Under analysis

A side effect of Indiana's retooling at the trade deadline has been an increased pace of play, jumping from 19th to 11th in pace.

As mentioned previously, this iteration of the Nuggets is more than willing to match that type of frenetic style of play and we should expect these teams to get out in transition rather frequently.

On short rest, both of these teams have played to the Over rather frequently, with Indiana possessing the fourth-best record towards Overs on one day of rest (29-20, 59.2%), and Denver trailing by just one spot (27-19-2, 58.7%).

While the Nuggets have gone Under the total in two straight now, Denver is gone 6-0-1 to the Over in the seven games prior to that.

The Pacers similarly had a recent string of Unders as of late, going 4-0-1 that way prior to their game on Monday but hitting the Over in the 23 games previous to that.

Prediction: Over 235 (-107 at Pinnacle)

Best bet

While Denver possesses a massive motivation advantage, its track record for covering larger spreads doesn't generate much confidence.

Jokic and company have managed just a 12-17 record against the spread when favored by five or more points. Then again, backing the Pacers in the last two months has been a horrendous bet, as they have managed just a 6-18 record against the number in their last 24 games.

In the face of this uncertainty, it may be best to lean on the most reliable element of this game: Nikola Jokic.

With essentially all of the Pacers' frontcourt depth now traded away, injured, or questionable to play in tonight's game, there is a clear path for Jokic to put on an MVP-level performance.

Combining the Pacers' reduced frontcourt with our forecast of an increased pace, there should be a lot of shots coming off the rim that Jokic can grab rather uncontested.

Pick: Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds (-132 at Pinnacle)

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