The Nuggets visit the Rockets tonight for the second and final head-to-head matchup this season. Denver limps into Toyota Center missing the reigning MVP, while Houston is riding a nine-game heater.
My Nuggets vs. Rockets predictions expect Houston to cover the spread at home against a shorthanded Denver squad.
Read my NBA picks to see why you should lay the points with the Rockets on Sunday, March 23.
Nuggets vs Rockets prediction
My best bet: Rockets -7.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Nikola Jokic has missed three straight, and he’ll sit out again on Sunday against the Houston Rockets. The Denver Nuggets weren’t playing particularly great basketball with him in the lineup recently, but his absence is a huge blow to the Nuggets’ competitiveness tonight.
Denver is 1-3 ATS across its last four and 2-8 across its last 10. On the season, Denver is 3-6 straight up and 3-6 ATS in nine games with Jokic on the sideline. That includes a 2-4 ATS mark on the road without the Joker.
Houston owns the longest active winning streak in the Association at nine straight games, and the Rockets have been masterful on both ends of the court in that span. On the season, the Rockets’ defensive rating is third at 109.5, and their offensive rating is 14th at 113.2. Over the last nine, the Rockets’ defensive rating has improved to 107.4 (best), and their offensive rating has surged to 120.2 (7th).
Denver’s defensive rating of 115 is 22nd on the season, but the Nuggets are 25th over the last nine games at 122.8. The Nuggets offensive rating has fallen from 118.8 on the season to 117.3 over their last nine.
Houston sports the fourth-best net rating over the last nine games at 12.8, up substantially from 4.7 on the season. The Nuggets’ 3.8 season net rating ranks seventh, but Denver’s -5.5 mark over the last nine games ranks 22nd.
Denver is just 17-20 ATS on the road this season, including a respectable 8-6 mark as the road dog. Houston, however, has been solid at home. The Rockets are 19-17 ATS at home, 16-15 as the home favorite, and 27-23 as the favorite at any venue.
I’ll back the hottest team in the NBA to deliver a win of at least eight points against a Nuggets team missing its do-it-all floor general.
Nuggets vs Rockets same-game parlay
Rockets -7.5
Aaron Gordon Over 17.5 points
Russell Westbrook 7+ assists
Aaron Gordon has averaged 13.2 points and 1.4 triples across 26.9 minutes in 39 games played with Jokic this season. In three games played without Jokic, AG has more than doubled his points and triples, averaging 29 points and 3.3 treys across 32.9 minutes. Gordon has scored at least 23 points in three straight, comfortably clearing this modest scoring line.
Russell Westbrook is averaging 6.3 assists per game this season, so getting to seven tonight shouldn’t be a Herculean feat, particularly with Nikola Jokic sidelined. Westbrook has handed out 9.7 assists per game over his last three with Jokic out, hitting the Over twice. He’s dished at least seven dimes in five of his last seven, and I’ll happily take this alt-assist line, down one dime from 7.5.
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Nuggets vs Rockets odds
Nuggets vs Rockets live odds
Nuggets vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Denver +7.5 (-115) | Houston -7.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Denver +240 | Houston -300
- Over/Under: Over 226.5 (-110) | Under 226.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Nuggets vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Denver has covered only twice across its last 10 games.
- Houston is undefeated and has covered the spread six times across the last nine games.
- The Nuggets have hit the Over in six of the last 10.
- The Rockets are 5-4 to the Over across the last nine.
Nuggets vs Rockets trend
Houston has won and covered in five of the last six head-to-head matchups with Denver. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Rockets.
How to watch Nuggets vs Rockets
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Altitude, Space City Network |
Nuggets vs Rockets latest injuries
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