Nuggets vs Suns Picks and Predictions: Nothing Golden About Nuggets Tonight

The Denver Nuggets (51-25) put on a stinker of a performance last night in a 107-88 loss to the Pelicans without MVP candidate Nikola Jokic (calf tightness). They will stay on the road and face the Phoenix Suns (41-35), who have now won three straight after securing a win on Wednesday night in Kevin Durant's return from injury.

Tonight provides a chance for the Suns to demonstrate the threat they pose in the Western Conference — will Kevin Durant and the Suns take advantage or will the Nuggets bounce back after last night's embarrassment?

Continue reading for free NBA picks and predictions for the Nuggets vs. Suns matchup on Friday, March 31st.

Nuggets vs Suns best odds

Nuggets vs Suns picks and predictions

There aren't many instances where a blowout loss can help a MVP candidate's case, but last night's 107-88 loss by the Nuggets without Nikola Jokic was as convincing towards his case as any one of his many spectacular games this year. The race has certainly tightened in the last week, with the two now neck-and-neck in NBA MVP odds.

After sustaining a hamstring injury that Denver may opt to play it safe with, Jokic is in danger of losing the MVP race and losing out on the opportunity to join the company of Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain, and Larry Bird as the only players in NBA history to three-peat the MVP award.

And while last night was a perfect demonstration of what the Nuggets are incapable of in his absence, there is belief that Denver will be even more shorthanded in this second leg of a road back-to-back. With the Nuggets three games ahead of the Grizzlies (in reality four, with possession of the tiebreaker), Denver would have to go 2-4 while Memphis goes 6-0 to close the season to lose their grip on the West's top seed.

Lots of talk in the Nuggets locker room about who’s actually traveling to Phoenix tonight for tomorrow’s back-to-back. Wouldn’t be surprised if 3-4 starters don’t play.

— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) March 31, 2023

If anything, this could serve as a weirdly pivotal opportunity for Michael Malone to use this game as a way to refine the end of his playoff rotation — an issue that has stymied the Nuggets in past postseason runs.

Tying that into the potential value proposition of tonight's game gives the Suns an understated amount of runway to really blow Friday's game wide open. Kevin Durant's impact cannot be understated, as his mere presence makes the job of others easier. His return on Wednesday night was less than spectacular (16 points on 5-18 shooting) but he should return to form rather quickly, as he has done repeatedly in the past coming off of injury.

As that comes to fruition, the Suns' role players will feel a massive weight lifted on their scoring burden — a burden which has buried them at times since having their depth sent off in the Durant trade at the deadline. Scoring-volume-wise, they've fared fine (their 37.1 PPG since the Durant trade ranks ninth), but efficiency-wise it has been a different story (their true shooting percentage ranks 20th during that time).

Cleaner looks with less pressure will become the name of the game for those players, and the team as a whole should benefit. And having a crack to display that tonight against a shorthanded Nuggets team should help.

My best bet: Phoenix Suns -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Nuggets vs Suns spread analysis

The spread opened the Suns as 8-point home favorites, but in wake of the news that Denver will likely play this game severely shorthanded, they have since moved to a juiced -9.5.

Denver is 40-35-1 against the spread this year, good for the 10th-best cover rate this year at 53.3%. However, it has been notably worse on the road (17-20, 46.0%).

The Nuggets have fared decently well on back-to-backs (6-4, 60.0%) but tonight's context is likely far different than that sample. The Nuggets have also failed to cover in five of their last nine.

The Suns are ATS 39-35-2 (52.7%) this year, but that obviously encompasses arguably the widest range of iterations for a single team this year between extensive injuries to Chris Paul and Devin Booker, as well as the team-wide transformation resulting from the Durant trade (and his consequent injury).

Nevertheless, they have fared well at home at 20-16-1 (55.6%) and especially as home favorites (17-11-1, 60.7%). They also possess a rest advantage, a split in which they've covered at a 58.8% rate (10-7-1).

Nuggets vs Suns Over/Under analysis

The total opened at a respectably high 233 but, like the spread, has seen major movement as player availability questions have surfaced. It now sits at 226 across the market.

The Nuggets have played 39-36-1 to the Under this year, tied for the eighth-highest rate of Unders. On the road, however, they have slightly favored Overs at 19-18, and as road underdogs in particular they have gone 8-5 to the Over.

Denver has played 6-0-1 to the Under in its last seven, and 226 would represent the lower end of totals it’s seen this year (9-8 to the Over on totals of 226 or less).

Phoenix is 38-36-2 to the Over this year (51.4%), but has gone 19-18 to the Under at home. Possessing a rest advantage hasn't produced any convincing results relating to the total, splitting the 18 such games.

The Suns have gone 9-3-1 to the Over in their last 13 games, and have played to the highest rate of Overs in conference games this year with a 27-17-2 record that way (61.4%).

Nuggets vs Suns betting trend to know

The Suns are 17-11-1 against the spread as home favorites this year. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Suns.

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