The NBA heads into Week 2 of the season, and we have a solid Northwest Division tilt when the 2-1-0 Denver Nuggets meet the 3-0 Portland Trail Blazers.
Denver defeated OKC for its second consecutive victory, while Portland overcame a seven-point deficit with less than two minutes left for a Sunday afternoon victory over the Los Angeles Lakers.
Who will come out victorious Monday night? Find out in our free NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers.
Nuggets vs Trail Blazers best odds
Nuggets vs Trail Blazers picks and predictions
This should be a good game, but 229.5 points are too many for this contest.
Denver has begun the season firing, scoring the 11th-most points in the NBA, and much of that is from their 3-point shooting. The Nuggets are draining 42% of their 31 triple attempts per night, with starters Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope each hitting at a 50% clip.
Jokic is a perennial MVP candidate, averaging nearly a triple-double, leading the team in points (24), rebounds (10.7), and assists (9.7). He’s coming off a 19-16-13 night against the Thunder and has averaged 18-9-5 over 25 career games vs. Portland.
The Nuggets commit the most turnovers per game and 19 turnovers don’t look that bad when three starters are knocking down 50% of their triples. Jamal Murray leads the team with four TOs per contest but has his highest career usage rate.
Portland is off to a surprising 3-0 start to their campaign, mainly due to its defense. The Trail Blazers allow the sixth-fewest points in the league (107) against the likes of Sacramento, Phoenix, and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Damian Lillard has returned from a long injury-laden 2022 season averaging 30 points and five dimes a night. Jusuf Nurkic has also returned, averaging his usual double-double, and they’ve also seen a boost from Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, and Josh Hart.
Portland doesn’t take care of the rock either — the Trail Blazers are 27th in turnovers and, more importantly, dead last in the league in assists. They commit a turnover for every assist, and that’s not a recipe for long-term NBA success.
We have two teams playing sloppy basketball and getting bailed out by hot Nuggets shooters and Dame going off for the Blazers.
Both sides are in the Top 10 in steals and neither team does well on the offensive glass. Without those additional second-chance opportunities paired against the turnovers makes lighting up the scoreboard difficult. Sure, Jokic and the Nuggets have been hot from downtown, but how much longer can they keep that up?
Portland is far from the best shooting team on the planet and aside from the terrific defense, it's Lillard carrying the weight with the rest just chipping in.
Lillard will control the pace and slow down the much faster-playing Nuggets. Knowing that's the only way they can, the Blazers will continue to play good defense — keeping this Under the total.
My best bet: Under 229.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
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Nuggets vs Trail Blazers spread analysis
The spread is 3.5 points, and it's hard not to like the Trail Blazers getting points at the Moda Center. I like the total the best, but Lillard on fire getting points at home certainly isn’t a bad thing.
Jokic has had some monster games at the Moda Center during his career, and I’m not sure Portland can stop him. He had 41 in Portland last season and has scored at least 20 in four of his last five against Portland. Having Nurkic helps, but he's 16th in defensive win shares on a 3-0 team, so there will certainly be some limitations against the two-time MVP.
Since 2012, Lillard-led Portland teams are 52-51-3 as the home underdog and 227-216-11 after a win in Dame's career. The Blazers are 3-0 ATS this season and 1-0 as a home dog.
Conversely, the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and 7-3 over their past 10. Maybe I'll wait for five points or bet it live.
Nuggets vs Trail Blazers Over/Under analysis
We’ve already discussed the total, but here are some numbers I didn’t present in my best bet section.
Denver allows the 27th-most fourth-quarter points while Portland ranks third. On offense, both teams score an average of 29 fourth-quarter points.
Portland's 26 free throw attempts per game lead the league (82% from the line) while Denver is middle-of-the-pack at 15th (75%).
Both teams are Bottom 5 in 3-point shooting defense. Meanwhile, Denver shoots 42% from deep compared to Portland's 38%.
Nuggets vs Trail Blazers betting trend to know
The Under is 7-0 in the Trail Blazers' last seven overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers.
Nuggets vs Trail Blazers game info
| Location: | Moda Center, Portland, OR |
| Date: | Monday, October 24, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBA TV |
