Do not overreact to Game 1 results when making NBA picks. The Minnesota Timberwolves almost certainly will not beat the Phoenix Suns by 25 points again in this series, and the Indiana Pacers should find some rhythm against the Milwaukee Bucks as long as Giannis Antetokounmpo remains sidelined by his calf issue. Luka Doncic is also much too good not to stack a few wins against the Los Angeles Clippers.
If yours truly was not a Timberwolves season ticket holder with a total of 10 tickets for their Game 2, this entire column might lean into fading Game 1 results.
Then again, espousing that thought despite a Minnesota bias might lend it some added legitimacy, and arguing the Timberwolves will not beat the Suns by 20+ does not mean that Minnesota will not take a 2-0 lead in this series.
Look at The Game 2s So Far
Not much needs to be said about the Cleveland Cavaliers' 2-0 series lead on the Orlando Magic. With all due respect to the Magics fan on the Covers staff, Orlando is simply overmatched in this series. When Donovan Mitchell was in the lineup, the Cavs were more akin to the Eastern No. 2 seed than the No. 4 they ended up at.
Monday night’s two other dramatic Game 2s, though, emphasized not to trust the precedents set by any Game 1 — even if both resulted in 2-0 leads.
It took a final-minute collapse of comical proportions for the Philadelphia 76ers not to tie their series at 1-1 with the New York Knicks. As painful as that was, Philadelphia should know it has a series on its hands.
The Los Angeles Lakers might be able to claim something similar. After they were torn apart in the second half of Game 1, LeBron James & Co. held a double-digit lead into Monday’s fourth quarter before collapsing.
While both those games went the way of the higher seeds in the final second, overreacting to the Game 1 results would have been a bad betting strategy. New York and the Denver Nuggets covered their respective spreads in Game 1 and then lost against the spread in Game 2. Which brings us to tonight.
Tonight's NBA best bets
Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
With Giannis Antetokounmpo still sidelined, the Indiana Pacers are 1.5-point underdogs. That is a hook away from effectively being a pick’em, so this intention of not overreacting to Game 1’s result pushes us toward a moneyline bet.
Tyrese Haliburton has never been in the playoffs before. There is a learning curve to postseason basketball, and Game 1 showed that. He should play only better than Sunday’s nine-point, eight-assist, and seven-rebound showing. There was a lack of aggression out of the point guard, though he still committed only three turnovers.
Haliburton finding his verve is enough reason to bet on the Pacers bouncing back tonight, while the Milwaukee Bucks can take a slight breath of relief knowing they got one win without Giannis.
Best bet: Pacers moneyline (+100 at Caesars)
Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers
This insistence on not overreacting to Game 1 is another version of this bettor’s favorite axiom, “Buy on bad news, sell on good.” It is fading the public. Many might choose to doubt the Dallas Mavericks after their 8-point second quarter on Sunday created the deficit it could not come back from.
But basing future decisions on the first 24 minutes of the postseason is devaluing an entire season’s worth of data.
Just like Haliburton has to adjust to postseason basketball, so do all the Mavs’ starters not named Luka Doncic or Kyrie Irving. The other three starters combined for 14 points on 5-for-18 shooting with only eight rebounds. They cannot play worse.
Best bet: Mavericks moneyline (+102 at FanDuel)
NBA Trends: Home Is Where The Wins Are
Home teams have not lost yet in these playoffs. With two exceptions, they have been favored in every game, so going 11-0 is not shocking on paper. But simply based on percentages, some road teams should have won in those 11 games.
As those two best bets above make clear, this streak should not be long for this world. In fact, let it emphasize those bets.
The Pacers were 1.5-point favorites in Game 1. Should that game have changed the power rankings’ difference between them and the Bucks by three points? That is an overreaction.
The Mavs were 3.5-point favorites in Game 1. Kawhi Leonard’s possible return would help move that line by five points, but he is not a certainty, and five points might be a bit much of an adjustment for even Leonard. Again, you can see the overreaction.
Raising the ceiling: Mighty Minnesota
If the underlying premise here has been to fade the public, then it warrants notice that the one Game 2 spread on Tuesday night that has not jumped much from its Game 1 number is in Minnesota. The Timberwolves were 2.5-point favorites on Saturday, won by 25, and are now 3.5-point favorites in Game 2.
That much of a tick tracks with one game’s result.
One might also argue it has been tempered by the public’s unwillingness to doubt Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Three-quarters of the betting handle at BetMGM has been on the Phoenix Suns this game.
Running counter to that would indeed encourage a bet on the Timberwolves. For what it is worth, this sentiment may struggle on Wednesday, with both No. 1 seeds looking like clear favorites in their series.
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NBA futures update: Value on Philadelphia
There's no denying the 76ers need to climb a mountain. They trail 2-0 against a team with one of the highest floors in the NBA, but Philadelphia knows this series should be 1-1 after blowing Game 2.
Philadelphia arguably has the two best players on the court, and there's a real shot this series heads back to New York knotted at two. Getting Philadelphia to win the East at +1,505 at Pinnacle warrants notice.
