The Dallas Mavericks head back to the Lone Star State with a 3-2 series lead over the Los Angeles Clippers in their Western Conference quarterfinal.
A Game 6 win tonight would advance Dallas to the second round of the NBA Playoffs, and the NBA odds are confident the Mavs can close it out, setting them as 8-point home favorites.
I break down the spread and Over/Under total for Game 6 and give my best NBA picks and Clippers vs. Mavericks predictions for Friday, May 3.
Clippers vs Mavericks predictions
My best bet
Ivica Zubac 10+ points/10+ rebounds SGP (+100 at bet365)
My analysis
Following the Clippers’ 30-point loss at home in Game 5, L.A. center Ivica Zubac told the media that his team wasn’t ready for the pivotal matchup with the Mavericks.
While Los Angeles, as a team, looked lost, Zubac held his own in limited run of this one-sided defeat. He played a series-low 25 minutes, but still scored 15 points and grabbed six rebounds.
It will be an all-hands situation in Game 6, with Kawhi Leonard still sidelined and L.A. staring elimination in the face on the road. That means Zubac has to back up his talk and be ready on Friday night.
For the series, the 7-footer had been a consistent force in the paint. He’s averaging 16 points and nine rebounds over the five games, and player projections for Game 6 sit around that output.
Zubac is forecasted for as many as 13.8 points and 11.7 rebounds, with several models pegging him for a double-double in the boxscore. My numbers come out to 12.3 points and 10.7 rebounds, with more wiggle room around rebounds due to Leonard’s absence.
Zubac grabbed rebound totals of 15, 12, and eight in the opening three games, but has played less the past two games (30 and 25 minutes) and hauled in only four and six boards. With the season on the line, Zubac is expected to log 30-plus minutes Friday night.
His individual player props have his points total at 14.5 O/U and his rebounding total at 9.5 O/U, but you can find combo props at most mainstream books, which will allow you to wager on Zubac to record a double-double between -110 and -115.
However, if you have a bet365 account, you can opt to parlay Zubac’s milestone markets of 10+ points and 10+ rebounds, and this produces a +100 even-money offering. This more specific ask takes assist, steal, and blocks out of the equation, but Zubac isn’t posting 10-plus in any of those stat categories.
Clippers vs Mavericks same-game parlay (SGP)
Ivica Zubac 10+ Points
Ivica Zubac 10+ Rebounds
Amir Coffey Over 4.5 Points
Zubac is forecasted for more than 12 points and his solo scoring total is at 14.5. He’s put up double digits in all five games of this series.
Zubac’s solo rebounding total is at 9.5 with the Over juiced. My projection was closer to 11 rebounds and with Leonard out again, L.A. needs his big body on the boards in Game 6.
Amir Coffey jumps into the starting lineup with Leonard out, which means more floor time and touches. On top of that, Terance Mann is questionable for Game 6, which could up Coffey’s involvement in the offense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Clippers vs Mavericks odds
Clippers vs Mavericks live odds
Get the latest Clippers vs Mavericks NBA playoff odds for Game 6.
Clippers vs Mavericks opening odds
- Spread: Los Angeles +7.5 (-110) | Dallas -7.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +265 | Dallas -330
- Over/Under: Over 207 (-110) | Under 207 (-110)
Clippers vs Mavericks spread and Over/Under analysis
• Following Dallas’ one-sided 123-93 victory in L.A. in Game 5, oddsmakers opened the Mavericks as 7.5-point home chalk for Game 6. With the Clippers once again playing without forward Kawhi Leonard (knee), that number has ticked up to -8 at some sportsbooks.
• The Over/Under total for Game 6 opened at 206.5 points and has climbed to as high as 208, as of Friday morning. The past two games of the series have produced 216 and 227 points, going Over the shorter totals of 209 O/U.
• Covers Consensus data shows 56% of picks taking the points with the Clippers while 71% of total bets are taking the Over in Game 6.
Clippers vs Mavericks trend
The Dallas Mavericks have covered the spread in 27 of their last 38 games (+14.90 Units). Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Mavericks.
Clippers vs Mavericks game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Friday, 5-3-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Clippers vs Mavericks latest injuries
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