College Football is steeped in tradition. It’s part of what makes the sport so great, and this season culminates with two of the most storied programs, the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, facing off for a national title.
The Buckeyes look dominant, and the College Football Playoff National Championship Game odds have them as big favorites. However, let's not forget that the Irish have won 13 and covered 11 in a row.
My Ohio State vs. Notre Dame predictions highlight how the Irish will keep this natty close and lead us toward a first-half total bet.
Here are my college football picks for the CFP National Championship Game, which kicks off at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame prediction and best bet
My best bet
Under 45.5. (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
We are spoiled with this College Football Playoff National Championship Game featuring a pair of blue bloods in the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. However, it has been an interesting journey for both teams.
Ohio State began the season among the favorites to be here and win this national title, but some hiccups along the way allowed a little doubt to creep in.
The Buckeyes lost to Oregon on the road back on Oct. 12, which in itself isn’t that egregious, but they followed that up with uninspiring wins over Nebraska and Penn State. Then there was the game against Michigan.
OSU managed to flip a switch in the playoff, crushing Tennessee and Oregon in the first two rounds. Jeremiah Smith was a beast, and the defense has become what everyone thought it could become.
Speaking of that defense, this is a unit that leads the country in opponent EPA per play, scoring defense, and sack rate — and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has been a rock star since a regular season matchup against Indiana.
That takes us to this matchup against Notre Dame. The Irish have quietly been the most consistent team in the country since a shocking loss to Northern Illinois back in Week 2. Since then, Notre Dame has notched 13 wins and 11 covers in a row — including impressive wins over Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State.
The Irish do that thanks to an elite defense, and by running the football with Jeremiyah Love and quarterback Riley Leonard.
However, you can expect that Ohio State will commit to shutting down that Notre Dame running attack and for Leonard to beat the Buckeyes with his arm. That will be easier said than done.
Meanwhile, the Irish have the best pass defense in the country, leading the nation in EPA per dropback and defensive success rate on dropbacks. This will be key when it comes to shutting down Smith.
The true freshman phenom looked unstoppable in the first two rounds, but in the Cotton Bowl against Texas, the Longhorns said, “Anyone but him,” and locked him up for one catch and three yards. I expect the Irish will have a similar game plan in mind for the national championship.
Meanwhile, the Irish gave PSU QB Drew Allar fits in the Orange Bowl, holding him to 12-of-23 passing for 135 yards, and one of my biggest questions in this game is how Buckeyes QB Will Howard will handle the pressure Notre Dame can generate.
Howard has looked great at times this season, but that feels a little like a by-product of having great skill-position players around him, and teams that can pressure him have given him problems in the past.
Marcus Freeman knows if his team has a shot at the upset, it’s by shortening this game and limiting Ohio State possessions. To me, this all adds up to a low-scoring game, so give me the Under 45.5.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 45.5
Carnell Tate 4+ receptions
TreVeyon Henderson 50+ rushing yards
This may look like a pro-Ohio State same-game parlay, but it all stems from the excellence of this Notre Dame pass defense. From what I’ve watched on film, I believe the Irish can successfully limit this powerful Buckeyes offense.
The Irish secondary is good enough to man up on the outside, but I also expect them to double and maybe even triple-team Jeremiah Smith at times, just like the Longhorns did in the Cotton Bowl. They won’t let Smith beat them, which means Will Howard will have to look elsewhere.
In that Cotton Bowl, he targeted Carnell Tate nine times, and Tate caught seven of them for 87 yards. Take Tate to record 4+ receptions in this natty final.
Then let’s close it out with Buckeyes’ RB TreVeyon Henderson to get 50+ rushing yards. This may be a hot take, but I think Henderson is a better back than running mate Quinshon Judkins. He averaged 7.3 yards per carry this season and always seems to show up in Ohio State’s biggest games.
Notre Dame will sell out to stop the pass, leaving holes for Henderson to run through. He’s hit this mark 12 times this season. Because of the combination of skill and game script, I like him to do it again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Ohio State vs Notre Dame odds
Ohio State vs Notre Dame live odds
Ohio State vs Notre Dame opening odds
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame +9.5
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame moneyline: Ohio State -400, Notre Dame +300
- Ohio State vs. Notre Dame Over/Under: 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Ohio State vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis
- This CFP National Championship spread opened with Notre Dame as 9.5-point underdogs. The spread remained there for a few days before dropping as low as 8. The consensus line is 8.5 as of Saturday afternoon, two and a half games before kickoff.
- Notre Dame has been a great bet this season and has covered the spread in 11 consecutive games. But Ohio State has gone 6-2 ATS in its last eight overall. I would act now if you like the Buckeyes, I could see them getting a boost once more public money starts coming in as kickoff approaches.
- The total hit the board at 46.5 and has come down one point to sit at 45.5.
- This is another situation where if you like the Under I would act soon. BetMGM has reported just 21.5% of the handle on the total has been on the Under, yet the number has still come down.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame betting trend to know
The Fighting Irish have covered the spread in their last 11 games (+11.00 Units . 90% ROI). Meanwhile, Ohio State has hit the game total Under in eight of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 27% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Notre Dame.
Ohio State vs Notre Dame game info
| Location: | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Monday, 1-20-2025 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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