The Memphis Grizzlies are in the midst of their biggest slump in months. The Grizz have lost two of three and four of seven, hosting the New Orleans Pelicans in a possible get-right spot tonight.
Can Memphis be counted on to play to its full potential after a slow start out of the All-Star break? Find out as our Pelicans vs. Grizzlies NBA picks and predictions break down this Tuesday, March 8 matchup.
Pelicans vs Grizzlies odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Grizzlies opened as -5.5 favorites, with some books moving briefly to -6.0, and most settling back at opening as of Tuesday morning. The total mostly opened at 230.5 and sits at 231.5 across the board.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Pelicans vs Grizzlies predictions
Predictions made on 3/8/2022 at 9:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Pelicans vs Grizzlies game info
• Location: FedExForum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Tuesday, March 8, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT
Pelicans vs Grizzlies betting preview
Key injuries
Pelicans: Zion Williamson PF (Out), Larry Nance Jr. PF (Out), Kira Lewis Jr. PG (Out).
Grizzlies: Dillon Brooks SF (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Grizzlies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Grizzlies.
Pelicans vs Grizzlies picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Grizzlies were bound to regress a bit at some point. Yes, their season has largely looked like that token movie scene where an up-and-coming superhero learns how to harness their powers, but Memphis' hubris has faded after a cluster of ugly losses, most recently to the friggin' Rockets.
Memphis is 3-4 both straight up and against the spread over its past seven games, a very stark contrast to a 43-23 season-long ATS mark. The Grizzlies rank 13th in both offensive and defensive rating over that span, and it's reasonable to chalk up the brief regression to growing pains after a season in which they've blown expectations out of the water.
The real question in this matchup is if the Pelicans are for real, sporting the NBA's best offense since they traded for CJ McCollum and, perhaps even more shockingly, the seventh-best defense in the league.
I'm skeptical on the latter. Outside of Herbert Jones — who is a truly special defensive prospect — nothing about this Pelicans roster screams "lockdown". McCollum's a minus defender, and against better competition, New Orleans should regress to the fringe-bottom-third defense it was for the season's first three-plus months.
The Grizzlies, conversely, are a rangy unit defensively that can match up with the Pels' jumbo lineups and bring length at multiple positions.
While hiding Ja Morant on defense will be a bit trickier against such size, Memphis can neutralize the bulk of New Orleans' attack, especially Jonas Valanciunas, for whom they have both the entire playbook, and the rare body that's every bit as burly in Steven Adams.
New Orleans should be more concerned about what's going to happen on the other end when McCollum or Devonte' Graham has to try and stop Morant bombing downhill at them.
Ja's dribble penetration is one of the most chaotic forces in the entire NBA, and with two bad defenders trying to plug the leak and a probably-overrated corps surrounding them to scramble on help rotations, Memphis has the weapons to punish them whether or not they sell out to collapse on Morant.
Ironically, Memphis beat New Orleans 121-109 in its last outing before the current seven-game semi-funk. Since then, the Pels have basically beaten who they're supposed to beat, and lost to better teams, with the lone exception of an anomalous blowout of Utah in what was the Jazz's single shittiest offensive game of the season.
The Grizz are rested, at home, and will be motivated to come out firing after having to check themselves for the first time in over two months. Count on max effort from them here. The Pels won't get blown out like many of Memphis' recent victims, but we're not counting on this one coming down to the last couple of possessions.
Prediction: Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
There's just too much potential for two-way fireworks in this game. Even if the Pels are just 20th in pace since McCollum's arrival, they're still scoring a ridiculous 120 ppg. Now extrapolate that output to Memphis' Top-10 pace and penchant for fast-breaking exploits, and the recipe for points is baked in.
Both these teams have bucket-getters and shouldn't be too methodical in the half-court. Ultimately, Memphis seems like the team capable of getting more stops both by reputation and on paper, but neither squad is the type to slow this game down and dig their heels in like a Miami or Boston might be apt to.
New Orleans is only 4-5 to the Under since McCollum's arrival because it's played teams that can't hold up their end of the total. With Memphis not only pushing the points but forcing the Pels' hands by doing so, we won't see either team's foot come off the gas in a matchup where both squads can easily flirt with the 120-point mark.
Prediction: Over 231.5 (-110)
Best bet
We really like the potential for lots of points to go up in this game, with two of the NBA's currently-highest-scoring teams facing off against each other.
Since the trade deadline, the Pels and Grizzlies are averaging 237.3 combined ppg, and New Orleans is finally facing the type of team that can push it to a greater onus on offense.
These two sides should enable each other and reasonably expect to produce a total higher than their combined output over the past few weeks. With Memphis eager to prove a point and New Orleans looking to protect its play-in berth, there's urgency on both sides.
Count on fireworks against a total that's a bit too low for our liking.
Pick: Over 231.5 (-110)
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