The New Orleans Pelicans still have a shot at making the play-in tournament—but they'll have to do so by notching a win without their two best players as they face the Memphis Grizzlies on Monday night.
Memphis is currently the No. 9 seed in the West and NBA betting lines opened with the Grizzlies as 9.5-point favorites over the shorthanded Pelicans.
Here are our best free Pelicans vs. Grizzlies picks and predictions for Monday, May 10, with tipoff at 8 p.m. ET.
Pelicans vs Grizzlies odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonMemphis hit the PointsBet USA board at -9.5 overnight, spent a few hours at -9, then midafternoon returned to -9.5, where the number sits at 5 p.m. ET. However, point-spread ticket count is about 2/1 and money 4/1 on the Pelicans. The total is out to 229 from a 225.5 opener and 230 peak, with the Over attracting 62 percent of tickets and 79 percent of dollars.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePelicans at Grizzlies betting preview
Injuries
Pelicans: Steven Adams C (Questionable), Brandon Ingram SF (Out), Zion Williamson PF (Out), Jason Hart SG (Out).
Grizzlies: Grayson Allen SG (Out), Xavier Tillman PF (Questionable).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between these Western Conference foes. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Grizzlies.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Grizzlies are ninth in the Western Conference standings, just half a game behind Golden State, and they should be motivated to leapfrog the Warriors into eighth-place—where they would have to win just one game during the play-in to advance to the playoffs.
The Grizzlies are coming off a big 10-point win on the road against the Raptors on Saturday but are still just 3-6 SU and ATS in their last nine games.
Point guard Ja Morant leads Memphis with 19.3 points and 7.3 assists per game, but he'll be hounded by a New Orleans backcourt that features a pair of strong defenders in Eric Bledsoe and Lonzo Ball.
The Pelicans have played well recently but will be without both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram for an extended period of time. Williamson leads the team with 27 points per game on 61.1 percent shooting while Ingram adds 23.8 points, 4.9 assists, and 4.9 rebounds per game on a shooting line of 47/38/88.
That said, even without their two young stars, the Pelicans managed to pull off a 112-110 win over the Hornets last night and are now 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall, while going 6-0 ATS in their previous six road contests.
New Orleans has its back to the wall and showed yesterday that it still has plenty of fight. While Zion and Ingram are out, other young players like Nickeil Alexander-Walker (13 points in 21 minutes last night) and Jaxson Hayes (18 points, 8 rebounds, and six blocks last night), have been chomping at the bit for more minutes.
The Pels might not be able to win on back-to-back nights but should be hungry enough to keep this score closer than the oddsmakers seem to think. With New Orleans 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five meetings in the head-to-head, back the Pelicans again.
PREDICTION: New Orleans +9.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
The Over/Under for this matchup opened at 224.5 — and has already been bet up to 228.5 — but frankly, I'm not sure why. The Pels are missing more than 50 ppg from Zion and Ingram and while they typically play at a fast pace they will likely slow things down without those two studs flying up and down the court.
Keep in mind that the Grizzlies have actually been better on defense than on offense this season, ranking ninth in defensive rating and 16th in offensive rating. New Orleans has also played much tougher defense lately, holding opponents to 107.3 points per game on 43.6 percent shooting over the last three games.
Betting trends also heavily favor the Under, with the Pelicans 0-4 O/U in their last four games overall and going 2-6 O/U in their previous eight contests without rest.
Meanwhile, the Grizz are 34-14 to the Under in their last 48 games at home and the Under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between these Western Conference foes in Memphis. Go against the line movement and take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 228.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
Grizzlies center Jonas Valancuinas has been an absolute beast on the boards this season, ranking third in the league with 12.5 rebounds per game.
The big man has been even more dominant on the glass lately, pulling down at least 15 boards in five of his last six games and racking up 21 rebounds on Saturday.
Now he could be going up against a Pelicans team missing its three best rebounders. New Orleans center Steven Adams (8.9 rpg) missed yesterday's game with a toe injury and is listed as questionable today, while Zion (7.2 rpg) and the league's most surprising rebounding monster, guard Josh Hart (8 rpg), are both out as well. Take the Over 12.5 on Valancuinas' rebounds total.
PREDICTION: Jonas Valancuinas Total Rebounds Over 12.5 (-118)
Pelicans vs Grizzlies betting card
- New Orleans +9.5 (-110)
- Under 228.5 (-110)
- Jonas Valancuinas Total Rebounds Over 12.5 (-118)
Picks made on 5/10/2021 at 10:15 a.m. ET
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