If you’re ever doubting just how difficult NBA betting can be, look no further than what the New Orleans Pelicans did to the Toronto Raptors in their season opener. Despite being 4.0-point underdogs, the Pelicans beat the Raptors – still viewed by many as East contenders - by 14 points.
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat were also upset in their first game of the year, as they lost by six against the Orlando Magic.
Fortunately, things should start to normalize as these teams get a couple of games under their belts. Regardless, we’ll all enjoy watching some hoops on Christmas Day this year, which is something we weren’t exactly positive would happen as of a month ago.
The quintuple-header kicks off with our free Pelicans vs. Heat picks and predictions for Friday, December 25 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat Betting Preview
Key Injuries
Pelicans: No injuries to report.
Heat: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Heat are 21-10-1 ATS in their last 32 games as a home favorite. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Heat.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
While the Pelicans made a statement in their opening-night win over the Raptors, it’s hard to overreact too much to that performance. New Orleans is still more of a fringe Western Conference playoff team, while Miami is one of the best teams the Eastern Conference has to offer, as evidenced by last year’s run to the finals.
In New Orleans’ opener, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson combined to score 39 points on only 28 shots against Toronto. That type of efficiency is something that likely won’t be there against Miami. The Heat have the type of defenders that could give those guys some issues, as Jimmy Butler will likely defend Ingram, and Bam Adebayo is one of the few players in this league that can match Zion’s physicality.
Where Miami is vulnerable defensively is on the backcourt, but Eric Bledsoe and Lonzo Ball aren’t a duo that can really make the Heat pay for starting one-way players like Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson.
And for what it’s worth, the Heat are 15-4 ATS versus Southwest division opponents since the start of the 2018-19 season. They’re also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Pelicans.
PREDICTION: Heat -4.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Both of these teams are capable of getting hot in a hurry, but this is going to be a very early start, which means some of these players will be a bit sluggish out the gate. Also, the way these teams match up should result in some below-average shooting performances from quite a few players.
While the Bledsoe-Ball backcourt isn’t one that can light you up offensively, those two should be able to make things tough on the other end. Both are high-level defenders when they want to be, so they should have the energy to chase around Herro, Robinson, and whoever else might be firing for Miami.
PREDICTION: Under 226.5 (-110)
Player Prop Pick
If the Heat are going to take care of business against the Pelicans, it likely means that New Orleans will miss a couple more shots than usual. That would mean more rebound opportunities for Bam Adebayo, who is coming off an 11-rebound performance against the Magic.
Sure, Steven Adams’ big body won’t make things easy on Adebayo in this one, but I expect the fourth-year pro to come out with a lot of energy on the national stage. If he can avoid foul trouble, I wouldn’t put 15 rebounds past him.
PREDICTION: Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 Rebounds (-128)
Pelicans vs Heat Betting Card
- Heat -4.5 (-110)
- Under 226.5 (-110)
- Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 Rebounds (-128)
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