Pelicans vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: McCollum Continues Tear in Los Angeles

The Los Angeles Lakers welcome the New Orleans Pelicans to Hollywood tonight. Neither team is particularly good, but the Lakers are in a precipitous freefall and might be without LeBron James in addition to already having Anthony Davis sidelined. 

Will the Russell Westbrook-led skeleton crew save the day or will the Pels pick up a rare road win? We break down their chances in our NBA betting picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Lakers.

Pelicans vs Lakers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line opened as high as Lakers -2.5 on Saturday night but has steadily trended down, settling between Lakers -1 and -1.5 at most books by the time of this writing. The total opened between 224.5 and 225.5 but has settled around 222.5 or 223 as of Sunday afternoon.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Pelicans vs Lakers predictions

• Prediction: Pelicans +1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 222.5 (-105)
• Best bet: McCollum Over 23.5 points (-115)

Predictions made on 2/27/2022 at 4:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Pelicans vs Lakers game info

• Location: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Sunday, February 27, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Pelicans vs Lakers betting preview

Key injuries

Pelicans: Larry Nance Jr. SF (Out), Kira Lewis Jr. PG (Out), Zion Williamson PF (Out).
Lakers: LeBron James SF (Questionable), Avery Bradley SG (Out), Anthony Davis PF (Out), Kendrick Nunn PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road underdog and 7-0 ATS in their last seven away from home overall. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Lakers.

Pelicans vs Lakers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

On a night-to-night basis, the Los Angeles Lakers need LeBron James if they hope to win. At 27-32 (26-33 ATS) on the season, his presence has hardly been a guarantee, but they're 6-11 in games he's missed compared to 21-21 when he's available. The Lakers are firmly in the bubble for the play-in, but it wasn't supposed to be this way.

Russell Westbrook — in his first and likely last year in L.A. — has been a disaster. His 18.3 points per game represent his lowest average since 2009-10, his sophomore season in the NBA. If LeBron is out tonight, the offense runs through Westbrook. Even if LeBron dresses, his knee might not be at 100%, which could also thrust Russ into a spotlight role. This may be suboptimal. Since the beginning of January, despite averaging 32 minutes per game, Westbrook is notching 16 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists. He may be off the floor in crunch time, but the minutes are there. He's scored 20 points just five times in that 21-game stretch and hasn't topped 19 in seven straight.

In the past, Westbrook could overcome his plethora of turnovers because he did everything else so well. He's coughing up possession an average of four times per game (fifth-worst in the NBA).

Meanwhile, the Pels have not been good, particularly on the road, where they've gone 11-19 SU this season and this marks their first trip to face the Lakers this season. Nevertheless, as poorly as they've generally played away from home, the Pelicans are 14-16 ATS on the road, and most of those failures came earlier in the season. New Orleans has covered in seven straight road contests, including an unlikely straight-up win over the Phoenix Suns in its last game.

With the Lakers floundering amid injuries to Davis and LeBron, it will put even more pressure on Los Angeles' defense in the paint. The Lakers allow 50 points in the paint per game, tied with the Clippers for fifth-most in the NBA. This could mean a big night for center Jonas Valanciunas, who has averaged 16.5 points and 10.1 rebounds in 11 games since his return from injury on January 31. 

And while the Pelicans aren't likely about to make a postseason push — though they only trail the Portland Trail Blazers by a single game to get into the bubble — New Orleans has shown signs of life. The Pelicans may only be 2-4 SU since guard CJ McCollum's debut on February 10, but he's been an immediate contributor. Even with a relative dud against Miami, McCollum is averaging 29 points per game in his tenure. If LeBron was fully healthy, this might be a different story, but he's not. Take the Pels on the road tonight.

Prediction: Pelicans +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Lakers have generally played to the Over this year, going 32-26-1 while the Pelicans have been the polar opposite at 23-35-2. Los Angeles generally plays at a solid clip, ranking sixth in the NBA in pace. And if Westbrook is indeed the one guiding the ship tonight, we might see some run-and-gun play. New Orleans is on the other end of the spectrum, ranking 22nd in pace while averaging 106.5 points per game.

Since McCollum's arrival, the Pelicans are averaging 112.5 points and that's including a 97-point downer against the Heat. Otherwise, they've scored at least 109 points each time out and at least 114 points in four. With the Lakers hobbled and likely turning the channel to the Russell Westbrook show, the Pelicans could turn to McCollum and Brandon Ingram early and often. 

Prediction: Over 222.5 (-105)

Best bet

As mentioned before, McCollum is averaging 29 points since joining the Pelicans and has topped 30 in three straight, including a 32-point game against the Suns on Friday night. Even if he and Zion Williamson are only barely on a texting basis, McCollum is clearly the focal point of this offense alongside Brandon Ingram for the time being.

With the Lakers in relative freefall without Davis and possibly James, the table is set for McCollum to keep rolling, and his total is simply set too low to ignore. 

Pick: C.J. McCollum Over 23.5 points (-115)

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