Pelicans vs Nuggets Picks and Predictions: Good Luck Playing Tricks on the Joker

The New Orleans Pelicans were flying high. Zion Williamson was finally starting to look like a guy worthy to be picked No. 1 overall, and they were sitting atop the Western Conference standings.

Then Zion got hurt.

Since going down with a hamstring injury, the Pelicans are just 3-11 and have lost eight consecutive ball games. The Pels will have to play their best game if they want to end this skid, as they’ll take on the team currently sitting atop the West in the Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets are led by MVP betting favorite Nikola Jokic, and the Joker has been a problem for the Pels this season. Will New Orleans finally be able to slow him down and cover the spread as road underdogs, or will Denver prove a peak too high for the Pels to climb?

I break it all down and bring you my best bet in our free NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Nuggets on January 31.

Pelicans vs Nuggets best odds

Pelicans vs Nuggets picks and predictions

Before this NBA season started, it seemed inconceivable that Denver Nuggets’ center Nikola Jokic could win a third consecutive MVP Award. 

But as the calendar prepares to flip over to February, Jokic is once again the odds-on favorite to win the MVP. The Joker is averaging 25.1 points on a career-high 62.9 shooting percentage to go along with 10.9 rebounds and 9.9 assists. He also has a player efficiency rating that matches his first two MVP seasons. 

The Joker does it all for the Nuggets, but he has taken that to the next level recently. Jokic is averaging 11.1 rebounds and 11.1 assists per game over his last 12 games, and he has been a handful for the New Orleans Pelicans this season.

Jokic put up 32 points, 16 rebounds, and nine assists when these teams met back on December 4. A week ago against New Orleans, he went for 25 points, 11 rebounds, and nine assists. With Zion Williamson still sidelined, Jokic is in line for another big performance.

The Pelicans have lost some punch of defense without Williamson, as the team ranks 17th in defensive rating since he went down. They also rank 15th in opponent assists and 17th in opponent rebounds per game over that stretch.

Jokic has totaled 22 or more rebounds and assists eight times over the last 12 games. At even money in this matchup, backing the Joker looks like a solid bet to go Over 21.5 once again.

My best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 21.5 rebounds + assists (+100)

Pelicans vs Nuggets spread analysis

The Nuggets come into this Western Conference matchup as 7.5-point chalk, but the early number has come in on the Pelicans, moving the line down to 6.5. However, it feels hard to fade the Nuggets in this spot. 

For starters, fading the Pelicans has been super profitable since Zion Williamson went down, going just 3-11 against the spread without him and 0-8 ATS during this eight-game losing streak. The Pels’ biggest problem over this stretch has been that the offense has fallen off a cliff without Zion. The team ranks next to last in offensive rating over that stretch. 

That means they’ll have a hard time keeping up with Jokic and a Nuggets team that leads the NBA in offensive rating.

On top of that, Denver returns home where it is an impressive 22-4 straight up and 16-10 ATS, boasting the second-best net rating in the NBA.

It's hard to not fade the Pelicans here until they pull themselves out of this tailspin. I would lean toward the Nuggets at home tonight.

Pelicans vs Nuggets Over/Under analysis

The total for this game hit the board at 233.5. Early money has come in on the Under, dropping the number to 231 as of Tuesday afternoon.

It’s understandable the early money is on the Under, considering the Pels' shaky offense and the fact that their matchup last week against Denver fell 35 points below the total of 232.

The Pelicans could get a boost if Brandon Ingram is able to suit up, and it’s not exactly like the Nuggets are a standout defensive team. Denver ranks 16th in defensive rating and is just 23rd in opponent field goal percentage. 

While both teams struggled to score in the last meeting, I wouldn’t be shocked if this turned into a shootout. In that case, I'll stay away from the total in this one.

Pelicans vs Nuggets betting trend to know

New Orleans is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games, and Denver is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 at home. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Nuggets.

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