The Houston Rockets will look to capitalize on the momentum from their deep NBA Cup run as they host the New Orleans Pelicans on Thursday night.
Houston has been one of the best defensive teams in the league and should control the action against New Orleans, which is why I’ll be taking the Under in my Pelicans vs. Rockets predictions.
Read on below for the full analysis of this game in my free NBA picks for Thursday, December 19.
Pelicans vs Rockets prediction
My best bet
Under 217.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
If you wanted to find two teams likely to produce a low-scoring game in the NBA right now, the Houston Rockets and the New Orleans Pelicans would be near the top of the list.
The Rockets have been stifling opponents on defense all season, allowing just 106.1 ppg and posting a defensive rating of 105.3, good for second-best in the league. Teams are shooting just 43.4% from the floor against Houston, which also ranks second in the NBA.
That defensive effort has led the Rockets to a 17-9 record. That mark might be even better if Houston could actually shoot the ball themselves. The Rockets rank 29th out of 30 teams in both raw field goal percentage (43.7%) and true shooting percentage (53.6%), as they aren’t particularly talented from beyond the arc or at the line. The only saving grace for Houston is that it has been among the best rebounding squads in the league, which means they’ve had enough second-chance opportunities to put up mediocre scoring totals.
The Pelicans aren’t great on defense, and might be an even worse offensive squad than the Rockets. New Orleans is averaging just 105.1 ppg on 43.7% shooting, and doesn’t make up the difference on the boards the way Houston typically does.
On the best of nights, the Pelicans might find it difficult to trouble this Houston defense. But they find themselves shorthanded right now, with injuries to Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram — leaving them without much of its scoring punch. Without those players in the lineup, the Rockets can focus on the remaining threats – such as CJ McCollum (21.1 ppg) and Trey Murphy III (18.1 ppg) – in order to lock down the New Orleans attack.
If either of these teams played at a notably fast pace, there might still be something to worry about with a relatively low total on the ticket tonight. But I can’t see either team looking to push things too far, and we can expect a lot of missed shots back and forth, which will lead to some extended scoring droughts at times. I’m taking the Under tonight.
Pelicans vs Rockets same-game parlay
Under 217.5
Rockets -8.5
Alperen Sengun Over 10.5 rebounds
Houston’s defense will force this to be a low scoring game, and that will play right into the hands of the Rockets. That’s the basis of my same-game parlay, where I’m pairing the Under with a bet on the Rockets to cover. The spread is on the hefty side at 8.5 points, but the Rockets are by far the better team here, are playing at home, and should be well-rested after four nights off.
I’ll also throw in my best player prop of the night by picking Houston center Alperen Sengun to hit the Over on his rebounding prop (10.5). Sengun is one of the top rebounders in the league at 10.6 per game, and has grabbed at least 11 rebounds in each of his last two games. In a game where there should be plenty of misses, Sengun is well positioned to go well into double-digits on the boards.
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Pelicans vs Rockets odds
Pelicans vs Rockets live odds
Pelicans vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: New Orleans +9 | Houston -9
- Moneyline: New Orleans +310 | Houston -390
- Over/Under: Over 217.5 | Under 217.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Pelicans vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- Houston is 16-10 against the spread this year, with New Orleans putting up a 10-17 ATS mark on the season.
- The Pelicans have a two-game winning streak against the Rockets, both straight up and ATS.
- The Under has a 14-12 edge in Houston’s games this season, and a nearly identical 14-12-1 record when New Orleans has played.
- The Rockets are playing to an average total of 218.2 ppg, while New Orleans is averaging a total of 221.7 ppg.
Pelicans vs Rockets trend
The Under is 3-1 in Houston’s last four games. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Rockets.
How to watch Pelicans vs Rockets
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, 12-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | GCSEN, SCHN |
Pelicans vs Rockets latest injuries
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