The New Orleans Pelicans travel to Chase Center to face the struggling Golden State Warriors — we're analyzing the NBA odds to find the best bet for this matchup, and it involves a very popular name.
The Warriors are still be without Chris Paul, thus Steve Kerr opted to insert Andrew Wiggins back into the starting lineup. However, Wiggins had a ghastly -29 rating in just 16 minutes, and the Warriors were picked apart on their home court by Toronto, losing 133-118.
Conversely, the Pelicans have won five of six, including a blowout victory over the Sacramento Kings on Sunday. Zion Williamson is questionable for this matchup, so make sure to keep tabs on that throughout the day.
With the Pelicans and Warriors heading in opposite directions in the Western Conference standings, find out who I'm backing with my free NBA picks for the Pelicans vs. Warriors game on Wednesday, January 10th.
Pelicans vs Warriors odds
Pelicans vs Warriors predictions
With Paul out of the lineup and Stephen Curry taking on a more prominent role, initiating the offense as the point guard, we have seen Curry's assist total climb from 5.5 to 6.5. I think this is an overcorrection, assuming that Curry will accumulate more assists without Paul. However, even last season when Paul wasn't on the Warriors, Curry mostly stayed within that 5.5 window.
Not only do we have an elevated total for Curry at 6.5, but I believe this matchup against the Pelicans provides us with the perfect opportunity to take advantage of the inflated number. In his last outing against the Raptors, Curry had six assists on only seven potential assists. That's an extremely high conversion rate, and several of those assists came in the pick-and-roll, where he found Trayce Jackson-Davis or Kevon Looney for an uncontested dunk through the lane.
I don't expect those assists to Jackson-Davis or Looney to be as frequent in this matchup against the Pelicans. When the Pelicans played the Sacramento Kings on Sunday, their defensive rotation was consistently effective in the pick-and-roll, with Herb Jones or Trey Murphy offering help and forcing the roll man into an extra pass.
If the Pelicans are forcing the Warriors' roll man into an extra pass — and why wouldn't they, as it would likely be to a corner shooter such as Wiggins or Jonathan Kuminga, who are struggling to shoot from beyond the arc — this will eliminate several potential assists for Curry.
Curry is projected to have 5.9 assists on Wednesday against the Pelicans, well below the total of 6.5, allowing us to capitalize on a probability gap on the Under, even with the increased juice. Based on this projection, we can price Curry at -166 to go Under the total of 6.5 assists.
My best bet: Stephen Curry Under 6.5 assists (-145 at DraftKings)
Pelicans vs Warriors same-game parlay
Stephen Curry Under 6.5 assists
Klay Thompson Under 3.5 threes made
Stephen Curry Over 28.5 points
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I discussed the Pelicans' defensive rotations and pick-and-roll coverage in the write-up for the best bet on Curry Under 6.5 assists. When I created this SGP, there were no odds available for Jackson-Davis, Looney, Wiggins, or Kuminga, but these are also players I would consider pairing with this Curry Under on his assists props.
I'm opting for an Under on Thompson's threes made to complement this Curry prop because it's available at the time of writing, but I wouldn't be opposed to you swapping it out for a Jackson-Davis Over on his assists prop when those odds become available.
If the Pelicans' pick-and-roll coverage results in a lot of 3-point looks for Wiggins and Kuminga, I anticipate that Curry will start hunting his own shot instead of making the pass. Curry is also coming off a 0/9 performance from beyond the arc against the Raptors, where he only scored nine points. I believe we'll see a score-first mindset from Curry on Wednesday against the Pelicans; the Warriors desperately need this type of game from him.
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Pelicans vs Warriors spread and Over/Under analysis
The Warriors opened as a 1-point favorite at FanDuel, and since then, the line has flipped, making the Pelicans a 1.5-point favorite on the road at Chase Center. This line is trending towards the Pelicans, and it doesn't appear to be slowing down, with a couple of sportsbooks now setting the Pelicans at -2.
The total opened at 233.5 and has remained relatively unchanged at DraftKings, moving half a point to the Over and now trading at 234. Make sure to shop around if you're betting on the total because it's trading anywhere from 233.5 to 234.5 across various books.
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Pelicans vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Pelicans have hit the first-half moneyline in 42 of their last 57 games (+30.80 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Warriors.
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Pelicans vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 10, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
Pelicans vs Warriors latest injuries
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