Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Three Ways to Fade These Play-In Tilts

The NBA Play-In Tournament is here with a couple of Tuesday matchups ripe for the player prop picking. Our best picks are highlighted by Minnesota's aggressive defense — which we're backing to turn Paul George over at least four times.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Apr 12, 2022 • 15:16 ET • 4 min read

It’s not the regular season. It’s not the playoffs. It’s something in between: a postseason purgatory of sorts. 

The NBA Play-In Tournament tips off Tuesday, helping define the final two seeds in the NBA Playoffs – like 82 games isn’t enough…

But hey, basketball bettors get a handful of extra matchups to bet on, including two play-in games tonight which bring with them plenty in the way of NBA player props. 

We scour the individual odds options for tonight’s contests – Cleveland at Brooklyn and Los Angeles at Minnesota – and give you our favorite free NBA player prop picks for April 12.

Editor's note: Ontario! Welcome to the world of regulated sports betting. Visit our Ontario sports betting page for the best legal betting sites available to you and all the information you need about this emerging industry.

NBA player props for April 12

Picks made on 4/12/2022 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Today’s best NBA player props

Mild Curry

The Brooklyn Nets received good news ahead of their matchup with the Cleveland Cavaliers in the play-in tournament, expecting to have sharpshooter Seth Curry back in action tonight.

Curry has missed time with an ankle injury, last playing against the Cavs on April 8, and sat out the regular-season finale with Indiana in order to secure his services for the play-in and beyond. However, how much Curry plays tonight could be up in the air.

“If I have 10-15 minutes on the court, I gotta be efficient with I’m doing out there and get the shots that I need and then get off of it,” Curry told the media, hinting that perhaps his floor time will be limited versus Cleveland as the ankle is still not 100%.

Curry was averaging about 30 minutes per game over the past month, scoring 13.5 points per outing. He was hot from outside in March, shooting better than 47% from beyond the arc and knocking down three triples per contest. That said, he eclipsed three or more 3-point makes in just six of his last 13 games.

His 3-point total is sitting at 2.5 makes versus Cleveland tonight, which seems ambitious considering his health and possible limitations. Brooklyn has been getting solid production from the rest of its support staff – outside of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving – so the need for Curry to come up big isn’t there.

Pick: Seth Curry Under 2.5 made threes (-132)

Beverley Hills Cop

The Minnesota Timberwolves scooped up defensive pest and former L.A. Clipper Patrick Beverley for games just like tonight’s play-in with Los Angeles. 

The Wolves’ defensive identity is as stable as Disney+ protagonist Moon Knight (NERD ALERT!), but Beverley is that much-needed go-to defender and will draw the assignment of former teammate Paul George, who has the Clippers offense humming since return down the home stretch.

Books have Beverley’s point total sitting at 10.5 for tonight, which is too long considering a few factors: 1. Beverley will be a "work on defense/rest on offense" option, chasing around PG all night. 2. The Clippers closed out April with five straight wins and a league-best defensive rating of 103.2. 3. Beverley hasn’t scored more than 10 points since March 16, putting in nine straight outings with 10 or less in the points column.

In four meetings with L.A. this season, Beverley posted point totals of 10, 5, 5, and 11. Getting past this player prop total tonight seems like a stretch when you weigh in all those factors. Books are already dropping this points prop to 9.5, so grab the Under 10.5 now.

Pick: Patrick Beverley Under 10.5 points (-130)

Oh Boy, George

As mentioned, the Wolves aren’t known for their defensive prowess, but their pace-pushing brand of basketball can sucker opponents into playing too fast at times. 

That causes chaos and therefore causes mistakes, with Minnesota leading the NBA in forced turnovers this season (16.3 per game). The Timberwolves also play aggressively in the passing lanes, sitting third in the NBA in deflections and third in steals with 8.8 an outing.

Paul George is the most mistake-prone member of the Clippers, coughing the ball up more than four times per game. Since returning to action, PG has totaled 17 turnovers in his five games including coughing up the ball four or more times in three of those contests.

Minnesota throws Patrick Beverley at George tonight and has some ball hawks like Anthony Edwards and Jarred Vanderbilt on the court, who love to cheat the gaps and pick up swipes. In his limited 31 games this season, George has posted four or more turnovers in 17 of those showings and will touch the ball on almost every L.A. possession in the play-in.

Pick: Paul George Over 3.5 Turnovers (-115)

NBA parlay

Did you know that if you played today’s NBA props as a parlay, you could win $48.14 on a $10 bet?

Use our NBA parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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