Sunday is a fun day in the NBA with 13 matchups on the board.
Some games are more interesting than others, with motivations mixed in the final week of play, but every outing has a massive menu of NBA player props to pick from to keep us locked in from 1 p.m. ET tipoff to the final whistle of the 8:30 p.m. ET start.
I rummage through those markets and give my best NBA player prop picks and predictions for April 2.
NBA player props for April 2
Picks made on 4/2/2023 at 12:40 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
I know this much is Jrue
The Milwaukee Bucks had a bad day against the Boston Celtics on Thursday, getting eviscerated in a 140-99 outcome. The Bucks have a chance to make up for that shitshow with a win against another Eastern Conference power, the Philadelphia 76ers, tonight.
Veteran guard Jrue Holiday finished Thursday going 2-for-8 from the floor for just six points in 24 minutes, but did add four assists and six rebounds to his stat line before getting the hook in the blowout loss.
Holiday’s scoring outputs have been up-and-down in the past couple weeks (highs of 51 points vs. lows of six), due in part to one-sided results. The Bucks have enjoyed their share of blowouts as well, and that has seen Holiday take a seat in the second half of those contests.
Over his past six appearances, Holiday has logged an average of just 27.2 minutes — a steep decline for a guard that averages 32.5 minutes on the season and 19.2 points per game.
His scoring numbers have dipped because of that, firing up an average of only 12 shots per game and racking up 17 points per outing in those six contests — and that includes a 20-for-30 night for 51 points against the Indiana Pacers last Wednesday.
Holiday’s point prop for Sunday’s showdown with the 76ers as low as 16.5 points (Over -105), reflecting those inconsistent minutes for Milwaukee’s point guard in recent games. He’ll be logging major minutes tonight in a big game for the conference, especially after what happen against Boston last time out.
Holiday scored 26 against Philadelphia in early March, going 9-for-13 from the floor with 5 of 8 triples dropping in 36 minutes of play. I have him projected to clear at least 18.0 points against the Sixers tonight with his floor time well above 30+ minutes.
Jrue Holiday prop: Over 16.5 points (-109)
Bird (Dime) droppings
Books expect plenty of points between the Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks tonight, pegging this game with a total as high as 246.5 points — one of the tallest Over/Under numbers of the entire season.
Atlanta enters with a lofty team total of 124.5 points at home to Dallas’ disastrous defense, which ranks 24th in advanced rating since the All-Star break. There will be plenty of scoring opportunities up for grabs and Hawks guard Dejounte Murray will be helping set those up.
Murray, who averaged 6.5 assists in March, has an assist prop of 5.5 (Over -115 at PointsBet). While he’s recorded five assists in each of his last two outings, Murray has dished out six or more dimes in eight of those 13 games last month.
In its last contest, Atlanta went out and shot a dismal 43% from the floor against Brooklyn — making only 39 field goals on the night. Tonight’s total vs the Mavericks tells a different tale.
Given that lift in projected scoring and with Atlanta at home, Murray’s projected to record closer to seven assists against the Mavericks. He dished out nine helpers against Memphis last weekend and had totals of 12, nine, and eight in the three games prior.
Dejounte Murray prop: Over 5.5 Assist (-115)
Dan the man
The Washington Wizards are kicking the tires on plenty of their role players down the home stretch, with several key starters sitting out. One guy getting extra reps is center Daniel Gafford.
The 6-foot-10 big out of Arkansas has watched his minutes spike in recent games, with 29, 31, 29, and 33 minutes his last four outings. He moved into the starting lineup against Orlando on Friday with Wizards big Kristaps Porzingis out of action due to an illness, and made the most of it with 18 points and 13 rebounds.
Gafford has seen his offensive touches go up the past two contests, shooting 23 total field goal attempts for 11 makes and 28 combined points. He has a point prop of 11.5 (Over -117 BetRivers) and with Porzingis not playing Sunday, Gafford once again has a high ceiling against the New York Knicks tonight.
I have his projected points at more than 13 tonight, but some models are calling for as many as 17 from the Wizards’ big man. With Washington getting as much as 12 points from bookmakers, Gafford could be facing the Knicks’ bench bodies in the second half if the game script holds up.
FYI: a second straight double-double from Gafford is paying +320. Not a bad flyer considering he'll once again get major minutes inside and his rebound projections are flirting with nine boards tonight.
Daniel Gafford prop: Over 11.5 Points (-117)
