We can count the remaining days of the NBA regular season on one hand (double checks days and fingers) and get eight great games on the schedule Wednesday night.
The hump day dates are tricky with a number of teams playing the second of back-to-back outings, mixed motivations for clubs, and a number of top talents either out or listed as questionable.
I push the spreads and totals to the side and jump into individual options on the NBA odds board, giving you my best NBA player prop picks and predictions for April 5.
NBA player props for April 5
Picks made on 4/5/2023 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Jordan Rules
The Indiana Pacers are in “learning mode” according to head coach Rick Carlisle. With notable contributors sitting out the home stretch of the season, the Pacers' reserves are getting extra run. One player picking up added minutes and making the most of it is Jordan Nwora.
Nwora has watched his playing time spike the past five games, averaging almost 33 minutes, putting up 18.4 points, and grabbing 6.6 rebounds per contest in that span. He recorded a 15-point, 10-rebound double-double against Cleveland last time out, and has a combo prop of points + rebounds of 21.5 (Over -115) for tonight’s home tilt with the New York Knicks.
The 6-foot-8 Louisville product has eclipsed the bar with those stats in three of his last five games since seeing a bump in floor time, and may face a foe less than focused on tonight’s road stop at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
New York could sleepwalk through these final games, with the fifth seed locked up and a first round date with the Cavaliers already written in pen. The Knicks watched star forward Julius Randle go down with the foot injury on March 29, and with nothing to play for this week, they could protect their remaining starters in these final games. On top of Randle’s injury, R.J. Barrett is questionable for tonight.
This spread is ticking down from an opener of New York -8.5 to as low as -7, which means the market is likely moving off who’s not playing for the Knicks. Nwora’s points and rebounds projections are all over the place, but his ceiling is high considering he’ll get major minutes against a thin Knicks’ frontcourt.
Jordan Nwora prop: Over 21.5 points + rebounds (-115)
Wrong Said Fred
The Toronto Raptors are parked in the play-in tournament, but just where the Raps wind up seeded is still up for grabs.
Toronto takes on the rival Boston Celtics on Wednesday, who are coming off a close loss to Philadelphia last night and are still trying to lock up both the Atlantic Division crown and the No. 2 seed in the East.
Raptors guard Fred VanVleet enters tonight’s tilt with a point total that opened as high as 20.5 at some books, but this number is dropping to as low as 18.5 at other shops. I have VanVleet projected for 18.5, while other models out there have his production plummeting to 17.5 points.
Boston has been playing drum-tight defense in recent weeks, with an NBA-low rating of 105.7 over the past seven games. Toronto’s team total tonight is as low as 110 points, which is a significant dip from their production over the past 15 outings.
VanVleet has scored 20 points or more only once in the past four games, mired in a bit of a shooting funk in that span. He’s connecting on just 37.5% of his field goal attempts and shooting a dismal 28% from beyond the arc as well.
VanVleet has played Under his projected points in four of the past six games, and has had troubles with Boston for his career, averaging less than 13 points (on 37% shooting) over 18 career run-ins with the C’s. He’s laced them up only one time against the Celtics this season, going 3-for-14 (1-for-6 from 3-point range) for just eight points back in early December.
Boston is expected to have guard Jaylen Brown and center Robert Williams back on the floor tonight, two of the team's better defensive players, after they sat out the first of back-to-back games versus the 76ers on Tuesday.
Fred VanVleet prop: Under 19.5 points (-129)
Top Gun: Mavericks
Are the Dallas Mavericks shutting down stars like Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving? It doesn’t look like it.
Both standouts are probable for tonight’s home date against the Sacramento Kings and both have lofty point projections.
Irving’s points prop is out there between 24.5 and 25.5, and given the Mavericks are still pushing for the play-in tournament while the Kings are likely parking their starters (Dallas is a six-point home chalk), Kyrie has the green light tonight.
With the tall team total for Dallas (123.5) and the Kings’ dreadful defense, I have Irving projected to score 28 points. Other models do sit on the lower end, but have him comfortably clearing 24.5 points on Wednesday.
He’s coming off a 41-point eruption against another poor defensive team in the Atlanta Hawks on Sunday, which was the first time in the past seven outings Irving has topped his points total. He scored tallies of 25 and 28 points, respectively, in two matchups with Sacramento soon after he was dealt to Dallas in February.
Kyrie Irving prop: Over 24.5 points (-125)
